1/
GEM三要素:
合理的估值(夠便宜)、有前景的賽道(有潛力)、可衡量上漲動能的指標(看得懂)

以當前牛市的背景來說,最難的是合理的估值

因為牛市VC錢淹腳目,連二線項目的私募額度都很常被 oversubscribe,更不用說明星團隊了,一線項目基本出道就很貴
(譬如Star Atlas剛出道FDV就5B+)
2/
這也造成一個現象,就是一些原本眼光不錯的VC,為了把手上的資金投完,開始出現比較濫投的狀況。

Animoca Brands就是如此,原本他們portfolio質量都挺好,但最近只要跟NFT和GamFi概念沾上邊,然後團隊不要太差,要拿到AB的投資並不困難,已經開始投到二線團隊了。
3/
因為募資很容易,也會出現一堆跟風做熱點板塊項目的團隊,譬如大陸有一票做手遊的工作室,都跑來做區塊鏈遊戲。

這些工作室在原本的領域可能奮鬥好幾年都做不出爆款,但在幣圈只要一個pitch deck就能拿到上百萬美金的募資,這是他們以前很難想像的。
4/
總之,這些都是牛市的特徵,游資浮濫的狀況下會出現「錢找項目」而非「項目找錢」的狀況,要找到估值便宜的 GEM 並不是很容易,可能要從冷門賽道下手,或是在熱門賽道中研究比較少人注意的項目。

努力吧騷年們

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More from @FTX_Benson

18 Oct
追蹤破萬了,謝謝大家。

昨天寫的文章意外受到熱烈迴響,我看了幾個留言,有些人說是倖存者偏差。

說實話任何投資都有運氣成份,我並不會否認我是極端幸運的例子,但如果只用一句話就概括一個人的努力,而忽略其抉擇的過程,那就太可惜了。
說說我的故事吧

我是2018/3入圈的,當時進了一間台灣的交易所(後來倒了)才開始接觸幣圈,由於進場即熊市,除了投到 Bitmax 私募之外,在幣圈的投資基本上是全部賠錢,在漫長熊市中我只敢丟 Bitfinex 放貸,找一些保本的機會來玩,直到 2019/7 發現 FTX 很有潛力,就把全部身家砸在 FTT 上。
2019年有非常多新交易所上線,而眾多交易所中,我只選擇了重壓FTX,甚至還趕在FTT IEO之前,連夜寫了篇文章帶了700多台灣人去買,如果我沒做功課,很可能會投到一些根本活不到現在的交易所。
Read 8 tweets
18 Oct
照顧一下中文圈粉絲

2年前(2019/7),我在Medium寫下了一篇FTX介紹文,預言FTX會成為BitMEX最強大的競爭對手,當時我用全部身家梭哈了 $FTT ,拿了兩年後成了自由之身。

如果此推有超過200個轉推跟500個讚,我會以 $FTT 為例,分享如何在幣圈找尋並拿住值得長期投資的幣種。

bit.ly/3n38tTD
36分鐘達標,比想像中的快太多了

我文章還沒寫好,容許我稍微鴿一下
1/ 幣圈的長線投資邏輯

什麼是可以長線投資的好標旳?我們先假設你要找的是能夠幫你帶來 ALPHA 的 GEM(老外術語,意思是有機會爆炸成長的寶石),所以我們先跳過 BTC、ETH 這種大市值幣種,專講找潛力爆擊項目的方式跟邏輯
Read 23 tweets
18 Oct
1/ Thoughts on FTT and FTX (Not Financial Advice)
2/ In the past 2 years, FTX has grown from nothing to the No.3 exchange on the market.

When FTX was launched (2019/4), there were already big players in the derivatives market such as BitMEX, OKEX, Huobi, Bitflyer; and Binance was ready to enter the game.
3/ It's a miracle that FTX can break through the siege. What is the key? I think there are two things: innovation and execution.
Read 24 tweets
13 Oct
1/ Why I'm bullish now.
2/ BTC's short-term price action is dominated by the derivatives market. When the people are in "FOMO" mode, they would radically long BTC in derivative markets regardless of the cost of leverage.
3/ As a result, you'll see the perpetual funding rate and the annualized basis skyrocket, and it wouldn't last long before the price topped in.
Read 9 tweets

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