Thread by @althecat

This @reda_getachew interview is very revealing and not just from his body language, and his absurd & tautological claims.

What caught my eye are two specific remarks which confirm information I have heard from elsewhere.

https://twitter.com/reda_getachew/status/1451559470941749251?s=20

@reda_getachew 1. Towards the beginning he discusses the air-strikes, and in doing so he suggests that the UN was warned by the Ethiopian Govt. about the coming air strikes.

@reda_getachew My unconfirmed report is this. UN had staff stationed in the Planet Hotel - the site of one of the first airstrikes on Monday. And my source told me that the building was also occupied by TPLF leadership.

@reda_getachew My understanding that the military target that was taken out in that strike was some kind of communication interference device/equipment, located nearby. The TPLF claimed it was an attack on civilians, specifically a market.

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh perhaps should ask the UN if it is true that they were warned about the coming airstrikes, and if so when and by who?

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh 1. The second thing that stood out for me came at the end of the interview when Reda talks about the offensives and mentions that there is conflict on "another front" without saying what that front is.

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh My unconfirmed report was that there was a TPLF attack on another front before the October 11th announcement/release from Reda which had gone spectacularly badly for the TPLF, and which was the reason for launching the offensive on the Eastern Front - in Wollo.

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh This is perhaps that's something that @DeclanWalsh could ask his TPLF contacts about.

What engagement was @reda_getachew referring to in these remarks? Where and when?

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh All this is rather important in terms of actually understanding what is happening in the war. On Tuesday this week there was a significant offensive by TPLF forces against Chiffra. The purpose of this appears to have been to move into Afar (as mentioned by Declan).

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh The objective of this action appears to be to take the Addis-Djibouti road, to gain leverage to use against Addis.

This is the same initial military objective (openly stated by TPLF spokespeople and enablers) when TPLF's Afar/Amhara counter-offensive began, back in July.

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh And in terms of what we are seeing now makes sense. If the TPLF had attempted to breakout of Tigray on another front, and been thwarted/defeated, it would explain the current levels of desperation and fear that you can see in this @reda_getachew IV.

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh At the end of the Interview Reda talks about all the winning that the TPLF is doing (i.e. the deaths of ENDF soldiers and POWs etc.), claims that TPLF's objectives are not power, but in the same breath also talks about marching on Addis, if necessary.

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh Again if you have been paying attention, these are things that Reda has always said. But what is this tweet about?

Subsequent reports suggest that mortars were indeed fired at Dessie - a large city with hundreds of thousands of IDPs in it.

https://twitter.com/reda_getachew/status/1450907045411102727?s=20

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh Indiscriminately shelling a city of that size is a war crime, this is exactly what Assad did in Syria. So why would Reda be talking about doing this.

The obvious answer is that TPLF's options are running out. They are blocked at Chiffra, fighting seems to be continuing there.

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh Attacking Dessie and Kombulcha, in an attempt to March on Addis - as mentioned by Reda - would be the only remaining option for TPLF commanders.

@reda_getachew @declanwalsh Such a strategy would be a last ditch, catastrophically harmful attempt to save a doomed rebellion. But based on Reda's interview with himself, it seems to be on the cards. And that also explains some reports that came out yesterday about what's really happening in Mekelle.

First we have this:

My understanding: TPLF has given orders to its civilian population. As of last night no one can leave Mekelle at threat of being shot. Everyone outside Mekelle has been ordered to go to Amhara and seek revenge. I.E. Genocide.

Thread:

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1451559873326497818?s=20

This is based on local TV reporting concerning what is happening in Mekelle. These reports emerged a couple of days ago, but are becoming clearer.

Another version of the same reports here - i.e. preparations by the TPLF to prevent civilians fleeing from Mekelle presumably so their presence will inhibit attacks on the city.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1451590878716383234?s=20

This resulted in my writing this quick twitter commentary on the wider implications of what appears to be the accelerating disintegration of the TPLF, and its apparently genocidal reflexive response. threadreaderapp.com/thread/1451592…

/ENDS

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