Fortunate to have spent the better part of the week with 22 of the most thoughtful and talented investors around. They are even better people. We break down several companies, eat and drink too well, and simply enjoy each other's company. This was our 9th annual gathering. 1/
Would have been ten save cancelling 2020 for Covid. Went ahead and called it the 10th anniversary anyway, in the spirit of Chamath math. Discreet group, so without naming those on hand or the ideas discussed, some general observations and the results of a fun survey follow. 2/
Three of the ideas were energy specific. You can take that as a contrary indicator, as with mistimed magazine covers, or that some sharp folks see value. My bet, having presented one of the energy ideas, is on the latter. All ideas dissected were investments, not speculations. 3/
Quality of management, durability of economics and quality of accounting are common yardsticks of measuring value. Price matters to these folks, who universally understand the price paid for an asset correlates to subsequent return. Risks and downside pervades the discussion. 4/
Between formal discussion, had time for some very informal surveying. Recognize bias results likely created by surrounding oneself with like-minded people, but also recognizing the utility of surrounding oneself with folks smarter than you. Take the results for what they are. 5/
At a sample of 22, the data lacks statistical significance. On bias, as I do the inviting, the goal is not to surround myself with lunatics. To the extent any of these folks are on social media (most aren't), you won't find EVs, battery and rocket emojis in their bios. 6/
In any event, thought sharing the survey results might be fun. Some predictable, but some surprises as well:

1. Do you own shares of Tesla? 0/22 (Lots of laughs)

2. Do you own/drive a Tesla? 2/22

3. In the next 5 years, do you intend to purchase/drive an electric vehicle? 8/22
4. Of those intending to purchase/drive an EV in the next 5 years, will you buy a Tesla? 3/8 (Two of the three being the cats already owning one)

5. Do you own Bitcoin? 1/22 (Explained as done out of curiosity on how to do it, not of a belief in crypto as an investment)
6. Do you own any non-Bitcoin cryptos or exchanges? 0/22 (Lots of laughs here about Doge and seeming consensus about fraud in places like Tether)

7. Do you own shares in Berkshire Hathaway? 18/22 (Surprised the number wasn't higher, more like 100%)
8. Do you own fixed-income securities (not as cash reserves but as a long or mid-duration asset class)? 4/22 (As to why, the explanation in each case was security specific and equity-like in nature)

9. Do you own any NFTs? 0/22 (Lots of laughs)
10. Do you own physical gold as an investment? 2/22

11. Do you own shares of gold miners? 4/22

12. Do you own shares of Apple? 3/22

13. Do you own shares of Microsoft? 6/22

14. Do you own shares of Alphabet/Google? 9/22

15. Do you own shares of Amazon? 4/22
16. Do you own shares of Facebook? 6/22

17. Do you own shares in uranium companies? 2/22

18. Will inflation (CPI-U) be north 3.5% a year from now? 9/22 yes

19. Do you own Chinese ADRs/listed companies? 1/22 (Led to a great discussion of whether China was investable at all)
20. Do you own any Chamath SPACs or vehicles? 1/22 (Laughs) (Explained as an unmitigated horrible investment in Clover not made directly but outsourced - Even more laughs)

21. Do you own any ARK ETF's? 0/22 (Lots of laughs)
That's it. I find myself at a point each year with the group reflecting if Mary and I were hit by the proverbial bus, every individual in the room would be a terrific guardian to our kids, steward of capital, and would do it if asked. Blessed for great friends and camaraderie.

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More from @ChrisBloomstran

30 Aug
This is a fantastic question and thought exercise. Michael does not introduce a maturity or call/put features. This is essentially a perpetual bond. Price is coupon/discount rate. It’s not a business that retains earnings or grows. Price it like a perpetual bond. 1/
The average annual “coupon” is simply a probabilistically derived 54.5 cents. That’s the coupon. Win luck doesn’t matter. Now what’s the discount rate? The 30-year UST is less than 2%. If Janet sold a perpetual issue, some fool (read Jay Powell) would buy it at 3% or lower today.
Now introduce credit risk and inflation risk in setting a premium. If the borrower were a classy, reputable, credit-worthy guy like @IgnoreNarrative, you might demand a couple points. If it were a few of the yahoos here on Twitter, you should demand damn near 100%. Maybe more.
Read 6 tweets
21 Aug
I'm biased against the life companies as investments. My opinion on purchasing life insurance favors term. If you are young and have a spouse/family that would need income if you get hit by the proverbial bus then you should buy life insurance. I strongly favor term from a
well-capitalized, highly-rated insurer. Term is very inexpensive the younger you are. Buy a long dated LEVEL-TERM policy that has has a RENEWABLE option at expiration. Without being renewable you are screwed if you become ill. At maturity you don't have to renew and can shop if
you still need insurance. Policies gets more expensive as you get older, which is why you buy a long-dated policy with a fixed annual premium. Once your kids are raised and particularly once you and spouse have enough financial assets to financially independent then you can stop.
Read 13 tweets
18 Aug
Dear Cathie, I was surprised at the indignity of seeing a high-profile investor short your largest product, so sought to determine why. Examining the $ARKK June 30 Factsheet, it appears devoid of what some investors refer to as “fundamental data.” Important? Let's see...1/
I see your performance, which is really good, except for this year. Looks like you're actually now down 6.9% for the year. I took briefly to the Bloomberg and other sources to decipher these metrics. What I concluded is you and your team must be counting on growth. Lots of it. 2/
To wit, a calculation for portfolio price to earnings yields a NMF, which must mean the portfolio holdings, aggregated as though a single business, lose money. It appears only 14 of the 51 report a profit. It seems like a lot, but in the realm of disruptors and "but Amazon"...3/
Read 37 tweets
15 Aug
Britain left gold in August 1931. They demanded payment in gold from the US in 1971. 50 years ago today the US left the standard with gold at $35. Five decades and 8.2% per year on, gold is $1,779. Little noticed is the 77%, 2.9% annual decline in the dollar v the Swiss Franc. 1/
More fiscal and monetary restraint by the Swiss, yet still flawed. Government debt is ~45% of Swiss GDP vs 100% across Europe, nearly 140% in the US and 250% in Japan. Swiss interest rates are negative. The Swiss central bank owns nearly $170 billion of US stocks. 2/
Meanwhile, the US is running consecutive $3 trillion deficits. 2020 at 16% of GDP. With a stronger GDP, 2021 will be ~13%. These are peacetime deficits. While the Swiss are far from potentates of sovereign monetary and fiscal prudence, Europe, Japan, UK and US they are not. 3/
Read 5 tweets
7 Aug
Quick observations on Berkshire's 10-Q:
Cash: Because everyone mentions it, $144B is up from $138B at yearend. For perspective, cash totals 15.78% of $912.5B in total firm assets, down from 15.89% at yearend. Firm assets grew $39B from yearend. Book value up $27.2B to $470.4B. 1/
There is no liability for T-bills purchased so the media and other watchers will correctly report the cash balance. Much lamentation will occur about the "huge" cash pile and the inability to spend it. It's not much above the 12% average cash to assets relationship since 1997. 2/
On spending cash, share repos of $6B in the quarter, following $6.5B in Q1 and $24.7B for all of 2020. Another 4,181 "A" share equivalents have been bought since 6/30 to 7/26. At ~$427k/share, that's an additional $1.8B. The cadence of repos roughly matches operating profit. 3/
Read 25 tweets
27 Jul
For those that haven’t read Robinhood’s 360-page S-1 and subsequent registration amendment, some brief observations follow on some of the most egregious aspects of one of the most one-sided, enrich the insider casino offerings I’ve ever seen, and there have been some doozies. 1/
If Robin Hood robbed the rich to give to the poor, the modern-day version is now in the business of gutting the sheep and pocketing the wealth of the retail speculator for himself. Fleecing at least. “Robinhood is democratizing finance for all,” reads the prospectus. Sure. 2/
Robinhood, who in December paid a $65 million fine (without admitting or denying guilt, wink) for best execution and payment for order flow alleged violations, will raise on the order of $2.3 billion from new shareholders in its upcoming IPO. What does The IPO investor get? 3/
Read 43 tweets

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