This piece, on how long sentences ignore the voluminous research on how ppl age out of prison, is quite important. But one caveat: one reason the older pop is growing is … bc we lock up a lot of older ppl when they’re older. nytimes.com/2021/10/23/opi…
The BJS report isn’t so detailed for the over-50s as for the over-65s, but for the over 65s, half have served under 10 years… meaning they were admitted in their mid-50s, at the youngest.
I’d also add that over-50s are still just abt 10% of all ppl in prison. They’re great candidates for release, and we should release a lot of them (and surely stop admitting a lot of them).

But releasing all the oldest ppl in prison will still leave us w staggering prison pops.
Which is to say: the oldest are the fasting growing pop in prisons bc of … of course … baserates.

(Also, when I looked at recent CA data from the NCRP, many of the older admits were for violence: still should rethink admits, but… not always easy cases.)
I’d add: in the past, an even bigger percent (of a much smaller relative pop) of older inmates were older admits. Which is to say: a bigger chunk of the aging pop is long-serving younger admits. But still a lot of older admits.

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More from @JohnFPfaff

24 Oct
Excellent to see this in Philly’s major newspaper: an at-length attack on pervasive police agency dishonesty and on the need for the media to treat police claims w far more skepticism and to demand accountability when lying is revealed.
Think of this as De-Wolfification and re-PerryMasonification of how we view policing:

Older police shows, like Perry Mason and Matlock, made the defense the hero, thus wariness of the police was a good thing.

The Wolf empire—all the L&Os and Chicago shows—takes a… diff tack.
I think the media is increasingly realizing that the police are not objective narrators of “what happened,” but rather political interest groups themselves, and ones that are facing intense, generational political pressure—and reacting accordingly.
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
One part of the 2020 NCVS that deserves attention--and tracks previous years--is to note that (non-lethal) violent victimization rates among whites and Blacks are roughly the same.

Which contradicts the conventional "Black and Black Crime!" type narratives.
It is, of course, inarguably true Blacks are the victims of a grossly disproportionate share of homicides-- abt 50% of the victims per year.

But another good reminder that we should be wary of extrapolating narratives of murder to narratives abt victimization in general.
And for those in the statistical weeds, the BJS--unlike the FBI!--gives us standard errors. Here they are for 2020 for the racial victimization table.
Read 5 tweets
19 Oct
The other issue, always left unaddressed because it is hard to measure and I don’t even know how it turns out, is if advocates had adopted a more mainstream slogan, would we even be talking police funding at all?
Like, had it been called “Redirect Funding to Public Health,” would everyone nodded sagely, said “great idea!” and then done nothing?

We actually have that program/slogan: the Justice Reinvestment Initiative. And it’s done good stuff, but … hasn’t changed the debate, at all.
I’m genuinely, deeply unsure abt the slogan. In an era where we nationalize local races, Lamb and Spannenberger aren’t wrong that a bad local slogan has national implications, and long-run GOP control of Congress will hurt those invoking “defund.”
Read 5 tweets
18 Oct
I know I should just let this go, but sometimes things #onhere get under your skin in a way you need to reply to.

Someone today, who should know better, accused me of unethically being in the “violence denying” camp.

It’s a tedious point, but just need to rebuke it here.
Here I am arguing that it’s hard to compare 2020 to 2019—in OPPOSITION to those who would downplay violence—because the at-risk denominators are different in 2020:
Here I am explicitly pointing out that UCR assault rose, so progressives should stop saying “just murder rose”:
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct
So I deleted my earlier tweet abt shootings being down in the NCVS. I misread the chart, which was about ANY gun use (including displaying it), not just shooting.

Those are, obviously, two different things, and addressing it downthread seemed insufficient.

Still, some thoughts: Image
That gun-involved violence falls in the NCVS is still somewhat surprising, since total gun purchases appear to be way up.

Could reflect something about the NCVS, but it could also tell us something about how those guns were being used that was otherwise not immediately obvious.
There's still some intriguing back of the envelope math:

UCR says ~40% of robberies involve a gun.
NCVS20 has a ~97K drop in robberies.
If 40% holds, that's ~40K fewer armed robberies.
Total gun drop for NCVS20 is 132K.

Still ~80K fewer gun events outside robbery.
Read 6 tweets
18 Oct
Important new data:

Tho it will (unjustly) get less attention than the FBI’s crime data, the 2020 National Crime Victimization Survey came out this morning.

Top line takeaway: all categories of reported (this can matter!) victimization declined.

bjs.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/… Image
In fact, 2020 (reported) victimization levels were lower across all categories than almost any time in the last five years.

This seems to reinforce the claim that what rose in 2020 really was distinctly homicide. Image
Now, it is essential to note that 2020 was a strange year for conducting an in-person survey, and the BJS and Census had to adapt. So betting some comparative caution needed, but don’t overstate that either. ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets

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