Heading into the final week or so before the election, here’s how @Thorongil16 and I have things shaping up for #VAGov. We still have this race as fairly stable and think McAuliffe should win by about six-and-a-half points. His odds of winning are a bit over 80% (likely D). 
Democratic early vote has really surged recently, as folks like @samshirazim, @ZacharyStarbuc1, and @WinWithJMC have noted. This week will be crucial for Democrats, but they had a very good weekend and continue to see their base areas go up in share of statewide votes cast
As folks like Zachary and Sam have noted, NOVA will likely be fine for Democratic turnout. Areas like Richmond are lagging a bit, but that probably isn’t enough for Rs, who currently have their own troubles with getting whites in Southwest VA to remember an election exists.
In a state like Virginia, I also do not expect the Election Day vote to split nearly as heavily along partisan lines as it did in 2020 (and we appear to already see some Democrats move to in-person EV over mail, for example).
But again, we have no way of knowing for sure, so this is just my read on things as they stand right now. A lot of election predictions really come down to who can see in the dark best, especially when US polling sucks so much. But this is what I think the math points to.
Anyways, if you want to check out the county margins in more detail, an interactive version of the model is over at striderforecasts.com.
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