Emerson, MTurk, and thinking Black voters will swing 36 points right in a year, name a better trio.
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1452728719483809805
Emerson has been banned by us for a month now because of MTurk data quality issues. Not including it regardless of what the poll says.
Also, the n=145 among Black voters here. A 36 point swing right would be well outside the margin of error for the Black subsample.
Also, the n=145 among Black voters here. A 36 point swing right would be well outside the margin of error for the Black subsample.
I need to stress that *I COULD VERY EASILY BE WRONG*. All I'm saying is that if Youngkin wins, the path to victory will look *nothing* like what these polls suggest. Data points to a McAuliffe win, but if D turnout is low or Youngkin swings suburbanites, it could change.
I'm just saying that this is not good data. Like in California recall, we currently have a series of very questionable polls that are not worth the paper they're printed on. I'm not dumb enough to say it's safe D. I'm just saying that these polls are bad.
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