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modest proposal Profile picture
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25 Oct, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Ok, so Facebook did some great free research for the other social platforms. To levelset, here is Facebook estimate of monthly active persons in the US age 16-23 and year over year growth.
Here is a young adults daily journey through social apps. Starting the day with Twitter, like the rest of us junkies. Ending the day financially planning on Reddit is some wild ass euphemism for planning tomorrow's YOLO's on WSB.
Here's how FB thinks young adults view the various social apps
Young Adults are driven join online communities by interests
while the olds are just here to relax and be entertained
pretty interesting stuff here

s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2109…

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More from @modestproposal1

modest proposal Profile picture
26 Oct
SNAP: "we remain very confident in the underlying performance of our advertising products and when we look at incrementality testing, when we look at first-party data, like on platforms swipes or installs, we see those conversions happening at similar rates they did in the past"
FB: "Targeting is a longer-term challenge. DR products are built on user-level conversions and as a result of iOS changes, we don't see same level of conversion data coming through.. have to rebuild our targeting in optimization systems to work with less data.. multi-year effort"
SNAP: "our first party measurement tools and studies continue to show our ads are effective.. approximately as effective as prior to these changes. it's the really loss of signal required significant changes to our overall technology and we believe mostly a measurement challenge"
Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
22 Oct
feels like the main Q around IDFA is whether this a loss of measurement problem or is this a loss of targeting i.e. loss of performance problem?

the two main impacted platforms say the former but the latter makes more sense because otherwise why would spend pull back?
On the SNAP call back, roughly:

"if the targeting still works and advertisers are pulling spend aren't they going to lose sales? Why aren't they spending anyway without the measurement?"

I get that you pause to calibrate models/measurement, but is that what we are seeing?
Ok, so smart people have spoken. The iterative nature of measurement feeding back into targeting is causing performance loss.

Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
16 Oct
Some good stats in here, wish there was less editorializing. Marketing at Instagram was. 6%/revs in 19 vs 1% in 21, mostly aimed at teens. Insta DAUs up 24% y/y in Sep 2020. Time spent for teens reached 3-4 hours during Covid up 2x vs 30-45 mins for adults nytimes.com/2021/10/16/tec…
Can add to these stats
And this picture
Read 5 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
12 Oct
I see a lot of descriptions of the labor market as tight, time will tell, but constrained seems more apt.

As to casual declarations of stagflation, we've really defined that term down. Even GS reduced growth estimates has real GDP next year up 4% offset by raised 23/24 growth. Image
we're 9 months past the start of vaccinations, half the world is still in some form of lockdown, millions of Americans aren't working because of a virus, it just feels like people are too eager to try and use pre pandemic frameworks to analyze today's still bizarro landscape.
Delta wave pushed back whatever normal means by at least 9-12 months. Let's see what 2H 2022 brings when 70%+ of the world is vaccinated, people are freer to move around and feel safer going to work and play, and hopefully much of the deformities in the economy have worked out.
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
5 Oct
The data in some of these charts is pretty interesting. Not sure I've seen this level of detail, or broken out by age bracket before.

Boomers (30+ crowd) time spent on FB Blue is wild.
Teen Instagram usage stats across five major countries
Daily acquisitions for FB blue throughout Covid. I mean this is pretty amazing detail.
Read 4 tweets
modest proposal Profile picture
28 Sep
With Netflix releasing some data on what people watch, and everyone having an opinion because they too watch tv, worth rereading one of @ballmatthew most important but underrated posts on tv, netflix and quality content.

matthewball.vc/all/netflixqua… Image
From today's @stratechery on Squid Games and Netflix Image
"It’s also a better fit for Netflix’s business model: the company’s core niche in entertainment is always having something to watch — someone has to fill the hours a day that the average consumer has the TV on"
Read 5 tweets

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