Thread by @fascinatorfun

@RobertSyms Wow! @RobertSyms

1/ Wales have not submitted any case or death data
2/. It is Monday (..so tends to be low Sunday and Monday…then catch up Tuesday to Friday
3/. It is half term. Testing reduces a lot.
4/. Infectious diseases both grow and subside exponentially.

@RobertSyms 5/. So if cases are “dropping like a stone” that is a sign that there is trouble in the testing world.

It was the first clue there was a problem with testing #Immensa fiasco. @RobertSyms

6/ Positivity levels are increasing 9.8% in England from today’s website.

@RobertSyms However.

I would expect half term, thus reducing human contact in classrooms to reduce the opportunities for Covid to grow. But infections caught towards the end of last week, will likely show up this

Ask your colleague, Alex Chalk, who was maskless in PMQs on Wed @RobertSyms

@RobertSyms I do think there is some disaggregation of cases (quite likely arising from the Immensa Lab fall out) going on and that would lead to some drop in numbers.

Keep an eye on positivity levels.

I would hope high levels of vaccination + boosters would truly reduce infection risks.

@RobertSyms I think it is important that MPs understand the relationship between case data and testing.. I also appreciate that this is often not the main focus of their daily demands.

@RobertSyms But if 250k fewer people take tests yesterday than the week before (half term etc) - a drop of roughly 35% - it doesn’t mean they are not positive when cases go down. It means they don’t know they are positive so pass it on .

@RobertSyms OK for them maybe (but we are well over 10k child hospital twins in England alone by now) but less so to the unsuspecting person to whom they pass it.

Remember 500 fully vaccinated 70+ year olds are still dying of Covid every week. Largely Avoidably.

Now prevalence = freedom