#VAGov polls have largely been junk, but Youngkin can win this race. But the early vote suggests that turnout for both sides will probably be fine, so if he wins, he wins by swinging significant amounts of college-educated voters (specifically college-educated whites).
No polls have been showing a significant swing right with college voters, though. They've either been showing the race close because Black voters swing right by 35 from 2020, because non-college whites swing right by 25, or because their partisan screen is ridiculously R-heavy.
I find the "non-college whites swinging right by 25" part a bit questionable because Trump's support is already very, very high in most of the rural white areas, so unless you've seen a catastrophic collapsed with Virginia urban whites (questionable?), I don't see the math.
If polls get the topline right, they'll have gotten the path entirely wrong. If one has an electorate that's 75% college educated that shows a D+1 race while another has an electorate thats 60% Black that shows an R+1 race, the average is a tie. But they both suck!
You shouldn't get credit if you whiff on the electorate composition or miss on crosstabs *outside* the margin of error just because you accidentally got the topline right. It's malpractice to suggest otherwise and masks serious problems with US polling to take it as acceptable.
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