Thread by @JamesWard73

interesting article with some great quotes from @AdamJKucharski and @BristOliver. but unusually I disagree with @TomChivers on two counts:
1) I don’t think we can or should make our policy responses into an algorithm (it’s too complex a system, with strong human factors) and…

https://twitter.com/TomChivers/status/1452939247258845186

2) although “plan B” may feel low-cost to some, if we’re about to enter a downswing of cases (which seems quite likely, although not yet guaranteed) then implementing it now is as likely to make the next peak of hospitalisations higher, as it is lower.

this may seem counter-intuitive, but as the dynamics become more endemic-like, so they behave more like a pendulum. and if the pendulum is already moving in the direction you want it to, giving it a shove in that direction will certainly get you there faster (and for longer) but

…when it comes back, it will come back faster and harder to the side you don’t want it on as well. so plan B could make the next peak higher… but also later (which could be good or bad news, depending on timing relative to the winter flu peak & other NHS pressures).