People commonly claim that pharmaceutical companies can't make money on drugs that are off or close to being off-patent
So let's talk about the famous case of Nexium and Prilosec 1/n
2/n The story begins in 1989, when the company that later became Astrazeneca patented a drug for acid reflux that worked better than anything on the market. The drug, named Prilosec, became one of the best-selling medications at the time
3/n However, in the late 90s/early 00s, the company making Prilosec faced an issue - their drug was soon to be off patent, and despite record sales generic manufacturers wanted to start selling cheaper versions
4/n After stalling generic manufacturers for several years, Astrazeneca came out with a new drug for the same problem, Nexium, which they claimed had significant advantages over Prilosec
Nexium quickly became one of the highest-earning drugs of all time
5/n However, there were some issues. While the manufacturer claimed that Nexium was way better, studies run comparing the two drugs found little to no benefit
6/n While there were some demonstrable benefits for Nexium over Prilosec, they were for much less common conditions than the main indication, which definitely wouldn't justify the sales
7/n This was perhaps unsurprising, because of a key fact - Nexium and Prilosec are two similar molecules. The generic names give this away quite clearly - omeprazole is Prilosec, and Nexium is called...esomeprazole
8/n When I say similar, I don't mean "vaguely the same". What I mean is that esomeprazole is one of two isomers present in omeprazole. Here's what they look like side-by-side
9/n Being one isomer of the molecule, esomeprazole is so similar as to be basically identical. While isomers can have very different properties, in this case omeprazole contains both isomers so the difference, if any, is largely academic chemistry-blog.com/2010/10/18/nex…
10/n In other words, the industry took a molecule that was coming off patent, split off one version of that molecule, patented that, and made it the best-selling drug of all time even though the evidence for benefit was...pretty slim
11/n Now, this sounds like a scoop, and it would be except that the pharmaceutical industry was, well, proud of doing this. Here's an article that describes the process, with pharma execs talking about how great the project went wsj.com/articles/SB102…
12/n The whole story is amazing, but some choice moments include the name of the whole thing - Shark Fin - and the amazing story of how the company managed to keep Prilosec under patent just long enough
13/n But the point is, this wasn't some shady plan. The company was quite proud of their drug, proud of the sales, and proud of their assessment that it was better. They even marketed Nexium identically to Prilosec, down to the pill colour!
14/n It's perhaps the most famous example of biosimilars, and it's not some vague similarity in method of action but two drugs that are arguably identical, except for over a decade one cost 10x more than the other 🤷♂️
15/n A useful read if you're interested in this topic is this article which itself has a great book referenced
16/n And finally, for those still skeptical, while Nexium sales have declined since the drug came off patent in 2015, it appears that globally (according to Statista) the drug is still earning AZ well over a billion dollars a year
17/n Anyway, for those still reading, if pharma wanted to make money off ivermectin they easily could. It's not like they haven't done it before!
Instead, they've publicly disavowed the drug and said it probably doesn't work.
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2/n Firstly, we've got studies that probably or definitely did not take place as described. I'd not include these in any analysis, certainly not an aggregate model
3/n We've got a few case series that are just a bit of a waste of time - without even controlling for age, these provide no useful evidence even as part of an aggregate model
Some of the ivermectin trials are just...wildly terrible
This study has been cited 23 times. Appears in the Bryant et al and other systematic reviews. And it is just very bad
The study claims to be an RCT comparing ivermectin to a control group for prophylaxis, giving either ivermectin or no prophylaxis at all to contacts of presumed COVID cases
Firstly, the study is published in a journal that has an entire page dedicated to why it's not predatory, which is, uh, not a brilliant sign. Apparently it's not a problem that they were delisted from Pubmed
The study in question was preprinted in November. Published earlier this year. It's been included in over a dozen systematic reviews
And it's borked. Enormously flawed
If the journal follows the traditional academic path, they'll wait 5 years until no one cares any more and then quietly post an editorial note, hoping no one notices. Meanwhile, the study has informed clinical guidelines and patient treatment for over a year already 🤷♂️
I wonder at stuff like this ivermectin in Indonesia "analysis". It's such obvious, boring nonsense that is disprovable with some basic fact-checking, and yet so very popular online
Firstly, the timing of "ivermectin widely available" is wrong. Ivermectin has been "flying off the shelves" in Indonesia since April 2020, with off-label use the entire pandemic
It's pretty obvious that ivermectin has been widely available in Indonesia the entire pandemic (as it is in most places). So what's the weird shaded area about?
This paper came out recently, and it is HUGELY popular among anti-vaccine advocates who are using it to suggest that vaccines don't work
It's also very fundamentally flawed. I'm a bit surprised it was published. Some thoughts 1/n
2/n The paper is here, and it's basically a series of comparisons of publicly-available COVID case and vaccine data conducted by a Harvard professor and a high-school student (note-DO NOT BE MEAN TO THE STUDENT, NEVER BE MEAN TO STUDENTS) link.springer.com/article/10.100…
3/n The study is broken into 2 sections. In the first, the authors took @OurWorldInData info, comparing the previous 7 days of case data between countries by vaccine rates. They produced this graph, showing no relationship between vaccines and reported cases