Thread by @PHmetals

1/ #China released its working guidance for achieving #carbon emissions peak by 2030 & neutrality by 2060 last weekend and it contains some pretty significant implications for nearly all commodity markets: metalbulletin.com/Article/401353…

2/ At face value it spells out ambitious overhauls to see industries like energy, steel, NF metals, petchems, transport & construction to reach peak CO2 before 2030, strictly controlling new projects in high-emission sectors such as steel, cement, glass & aluminium.

3/ Meanwhile new energy materials & vehicles, and high-end equipment manufacturing will accelerate as strategic emerging industries. To achieve non-fossil energy consumption of >80% by 2060 China will also focus on renewables incl wind, solar, biomass, tidal & geothermal.

4/ Interesting to me though is that the full translated text (news.cn/english/2021-1…) seems to contain some important qualifications relating to social development goals & managing risks on that front. The intentions are surely there but also sufficient caveats to note...

5/ "Endeavors to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve carbon neutrality must be incorporated into the overall economic and social development framework."

6/ "The efforts to reduce pollution and carbon emissions must be balanced with the need to ensure the security of energy, industrial chains, supply chains, and food, as well as normal daily life."

7/ "In the international response to climate change, we need to be prepared to both stand our ground and engage in cooperation, continue to increase China’s influence and voice on the world stage, and resolutely safeguard our development rights and interests."

8/ "As a developing country, China adheres to the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities, respective capabilities, and fairness and safeguards its development rights and interests."

9/ My takeaway summary: China is serious about these goals (Xi's name is put against them after all) & the route towards them will mean big changes for industry. BUT social dev still comes first and there are sufficient caveats built in to excuse reining back if that's at risk.