Thread by @WillHayCardiff

Today the Chancellor Rishi Sunak is going to announce:

1. A public sector pay rise/ end to the pay freeze

2. An increase in the living wage.

However, if you live in Wales it can be hard to workout which parts apply to you because of devolution.

Let's work it out...

[Thread]

-- The increase in the Living Wage --

Let's start with the easy answer.

The National Living Wage will increase to £9.50 from April 2022, equating to an extra £1,000 a year for a full-time worker.

The pay rise will also see the National Minimum Wage go up to £9.18, while the Apprentice Rate increases to £4.81.

Because the living wage is not devolved these changes will apply to all public and private sector workers in Wales.

You must not be paid fewer than this amount.

-- End of the public sector pay freeze --

Right this one is more complex.

The public sector pay freeze mainly applies to England but it depends on the profession.

For example, the Welsh Gov is responsible for pay in the NHS because health is devolved meaning that the pay rise will not be automatically applied to Welsh NHS workers.

However policing and prisons are not devolved therefore the rise will apply to police and prison officers whenever the amount is decided.

Before certain people start losing their minds that Wales is being short changed here we need to look at the details.

If the money for the pay rises is not coming from an existing pot in the UK Government budget this is new money, and therefore Wales will get a proportional share of this through the Barnett Formula.

If they are finding the money from existing cash in the budget, Wales won't.

The UK Treasury confirmed to me yesterday that there is a Barnett Consequential meaning Wales will be getting extra cash but it would be up to Welsh Government if they wanted to use it on public sector pay (though some things like NI have to be spent on certain things).

But we don't know how much extra money will come to Wales through this because we don't know yet how much the pay rises in England will be.

This is because they are going to be set by independent pay bodies and we don't know how much will be new money.

The Welsh Gov have indicated that they will spend the extra cash on pay rises but have called on the UK Gov to make sure the increases are "fully funded" so they don't have to take the money from existing spending.

THERE IS MORE!

Though the living wage increase sounds good, the UK Gov is giving with one hand and taking with the other.

While the Living Wage is being boosted by 59p - the Chancellor has already hiked National Insurance and cut Universal Credit as inflation rises with the consumer price inflation rate currently standing at 3.1%.

National Insurance Contributions for workers will increase by 1.25 percentage points from April to help pay for the NHS and social care, while he ended the £20-a-week Universal Credit coronavirus uplift earlier this month.

Some estimates suggest that the "£1,000 rise" for a full time worker could be as little as £250 after all the other changes take effect.

It is also worth noting how dumb the current constitutional set up is.

The Welsh Gov will learn about these changes at the same time as everyone else. They then have to work out if they will be getting any extra cash to run vital services.

This is an utterly bizarre way to manage long term spending and planning for things like the NHS in Wales.

It makes proper long term strategy incredibly difficult.

Anyway, thanks for getting to the end of this.

Please share to people you think may be affected in Wales.

Full story here:

walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-new…

Amendment. The Welsh Gov learn about these changes usually the evening before or the morning of the budget announcement.