I dedicate this tweet to the Tesla haters who-- when confronted with the fact that U.S. legacy sales are in steady decline-- reply, "Sure, but you just don't get it, dummy: *their strategy* is to sell less vehicles!"
$GM $TSLA
investor.gm.com/static-files/c…
GM total revenue and EV market share have both fallen to their lowest level in 5 years:
And Cruise is losing more money than ever and borrowing billions from GM Financial to purchase autonomous vehicles GM manufactures. 👀
And GM's automotive free cash flow is negative again this year, so... 😬
Q3 2021 Earnings Comparison

$TSLA
$1.618B GAAP Earnings
241K deliveries
$ 6,703 GAAP Earnings per Delivery

$GM
$2.420B GAAP Earnings
1,311K deliveries (retail, excl. Joint Ventures)
$ 1,846 GAAP Earnings per Delivery
I would edit the tweet above from “excl” to “incl”, if @Jack gave us an Edit button.

The units sold above *do* include Wuling Mini microcar sales in China.

If I exclude Wuling sales, it’s:
1,311K - 349K = 962K excl. Wuling

$2,420M / 962K = $2,516 per non-Wuling vehicle sold

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More from @ICannot_Enough

26 Oct
Days it took $TSLA to grow mkt cap by $100B:

Days | Mkt Cap | Date

6,049 | $100B | 1/22/2020
161 | $200B | 7/1
19 | $300B | 7/20
37 | $400B | 8/26
90 | $500B | 11/24
13 | $600B | 12/7
28 | $700B | 1/4/2021
4 | $800B | 1/8
287 | $900B | 10/22
3 | $1T | 10/25
1 | $1.1T | 10/26
Wi1d .1Tmes!
“Hey, look!, it just dropped billions and billions of dollars over the last few minutes! It’s working! Only another trillion dollars to go and everyone will know how right I was all along!”
—Jim Chanos, probably
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct
$TSLA has blown my Q3 2021 earnings expectations out of the water (more analysis to follow):
tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/TWPKBV_…
"Quarter-end cash & cash equivalents decreased to $16.1B in Q3, driven mainly by net debt and finance lease repayments of $1.5B, partially offset by free cash flow of $1.3B. Our total debt excluding vehicle and energy product financing has fallen to just $2.1B at the end of Q3."
Tesla here is shaming the major credit rating agencies into an upgrade.

As @garyblack00 argued yesterday, it's preposterous for them to consider leaving Tesla rated below investment grade.
Read 8 tweets
17 Oct
Time to re-run this poll question from 2 years ago:

Answer *only if you own a Tesla*

(all may comment below)

2-part question:
1️⃣ Did you buy in the U.S. 🇺🇸 or Other country?
2️⃣ Have you ever spent more money? (on a non-Tesla vehicle)

$TSLA $TSLAQ
Here’s how “The Tesla Stretch” poll turned out when I ran it in 2019:
With 12 hours left to go on this 24-hour poll, here are the early results.
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
The most common question on the forecast thread I posted last night is why I'm not forecasting Q3 earnings to be a lot higher than Q2's, given that the deliveries rose so much.

I created this waterfall chart to show why. It walks from Q2 Actuals to my Q3 forecast, by line item.
Yes, the volumes were up, and yes, I expect the volume increase to drive additional revenue, but the associated costs will also increase with the volume and higher rates Elon warned of recently (chip shortage, ship shortage, expediting and flying parts all over the world, etc.).
SG&A Expenses will also need to go up related to all of the hiring in Berlin, Austin, and elsewhere around the globe not directly related to the factories, so I'm forecasting that "fixed" expense higher by $0.1B.
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
Here's my latest Tesla forecast, in the customary 69-tweet format.

Even with this score of charts, I cannot underscore enough: the $TSLA growth story will continue for many years to come.
/1
Here's how Tesla's revenue has grown over the years.

These are *actuals*, not my forecast.

In a week, we'll know the Q3 figure. I'm guessing it'll be a new all-time record over $14 billion.
/2
Here's a S3XY chart showing global deliveries per quarter.

This is the first time I'm tweeting my forecast through 2025.

I'm forecasting 896,024 deliveries in 2021 which would make *almost 80% Year-over-year growth*. 👀
/3
Read 69 tweets
9 Sep
A hardcore smack down to gas cars:
$TSLA
Here’s a look at some of the cars the Model S Plaid beat.

Nurburgring record times per autocar.co.uk/car-news/anyth…

First up, this roomy and roofless number from Toyota:
Looks like the Plaid Model S beat this AMG by 26 seconds!

I wouldn’t want to try cramming 4 friends in it tho.
Read 7 tweets

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