I can't really stress this enough, if your outlook on...
- how the broad crypto market behaves
-marketcycle patterns
-capital rotation motives
-who your counterparties are
...is the same as it was 2 years ago?
I think life here is going to get much, much harder soon
- how the broad crypto market behaves
-marketcycle patterns
-capital rotation motives
-who your counterparties are
...is the same as it was 2 years ago?
I think life here is going to get much, much harder soon
most of crypto is not going to trade like it used to for much longer
Think it's throwing some natives off
Less and less upside for alts bc VC capture while most non-corporate launches struggling to gain traction
That's just one example of new/different forces here to stay
Think it's throwing some natives off
Less and less upside for alts bc VC capture while most non-corporate launches struggling to gain traction
That's just one example of new/different forces here to stay
market has sectors now which actually perform differently according to... not necessarily utility, but speculation on future utility potential
previously, narratives were for idiots and dumping on newbs (dentacoin?), now some narratives have merit
previously, narratives were for idiots and dumping on newbs (dentacoin?), now some narratives have merit
Derivatives are everywhere (more on that in a sec)
very few people denominate in BTC any more. W rise of defi and NFTs, ETH denomination has become a thing but much more of the market thinks in USD now.
very few people denominate in BTC any more. W rise of defi and NFTs, ETH denomination has become a thing but much more of the market thinks in USD now.
but BTC and alts used to take turns because people would rotate between them
now, you're seeing more rotations into USD or ETH, bitcoin becomes less "pumpy"
now, you're seeing more rotations into USD or ETH, bitcoin becomes less "pumpy"
So do alts as a whole
we still see some "everything go up", but again, the sectors take turns outperforming based on narrative
because instead of "hmm, alts or btc?"
market thinks in narratives and often moves to USD instead
we still see some "everything go up", but again, the sectors take turns outperforming based on narrative
because instead of "hmm, alts or btc?"
market thinks in narratives and often moves to USD instead
derivatives are exacerbating moves, and also allow for hedging.
As we see more institutional capital enter, expect to see alts have less and less value available to capture.
VCs get more alloc, and can hedge holdings, creating sell pressure and more reasonable price "caps"
As we see more institutional capital enter, expect to see alts have less and less value available to capture.
VCs get more alloc, and can hedge holdings, creating sell pressure and more reasonable price "caps"
on low timeframes, everyone is just way smarter and faster than they were even a year ago
less room for obvious edges there, but new market complexity adds new possibilities for edge. Just not as easy for your average retail trader to find or exploit
less room for obvious edges there, but new market complexity adds new possibilities for edge. Just not as easy for your average retail trader to find or exploit
anyways, I'm rambling
the main point is that as this space evolves, so too should your method(s) of thinking about it.
What worked this year may not work next year, and you've GOT to pay attention to behavioral drivers in this market if you want to stay competitive for long.
the main point is that as this space evolves, so too should your method(s) of thinking about it.
What worked this year may not work next year, and you've GOT to pay attention to behavioral drivers in this market if you want to stay competitive for long.
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