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28 Oct, 9 tweets, 2 min read
@_prashantnair @dugalira 1. Summary of the CH session on 27/10/2021. " Mega IPOs & Market Tops". Examples of 5 Mega IPOs since '94. Chicken & Egg situation. Did the Mega IPOs come at the TOP or a Roaring Bull Market create the condition for Mega IPOs ?. 🤔
2. 1994: MSGF : Planned 300 cr. Raised 1000 cr. Closed ended Fund; Grey Mkt Premium : 500%. Black Mkt for Application Forms. Some applied by Xeroxing the Original App. Forms😷. NAV always below par thro' the entire period of 15 years.😳Sensex dropped by 15 % in the next 4 months
3. 2006.: Rel. Petro : Rs. 8100 cr. Largest till then. Oversubscribed 51 times. Despite SEBI restrictions on P-Notes, the market was bullish till it got listed on 11th May 2006. Nifty fell 30 % over the subsequent 30 days.
4. 2008 : Reliance Power: Rs. 11500 Cr. Largest till then. Oversubscribed in first hour after opening on 15th Jan 2008. Final Over subscription 72 times. Nifty fell 29 % subsequently in 6 trading sessions.
5. 2010 : Coal India: Rs.15200 cr. Largest till then. Oversubscribed 15 times. Listed on 4th November. Nifty fell 10 % in 20 trading sessions.
6. 2021 : Zomato : Rs. 9375 cr. Largest till then. Oversubscribed 38 times. Listed on 27 th July. Small Cap Index fell by 10 % in 3 weeks from peak on 3rd Aug.
7. 2021 : Year of IPOs. Approx. 100 K cr. to be raised in 12 months . Next 10 days 30k crore will be raised. The mother of all IPOs coming in the next 10 days. PayTm raising Rs. 18,300 cr.
8. Some FUN FACTS : Dutch East India Co. was the first IPO in the world in 1602.India figured then too 😁; Reliance Ind IPO in 1977 raised Rs. 2.82 crores; In just 2 years,'94-'95/'95-'96, a total of 2750 IPOs debuted, averaging 5/day😱Sucked liquidity dry hence markets bearish.
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More from @sainik636

26 Oct
1.Everyone is disturbed by the plethora of Crypto ads which are on during the T-20 games. The Celebrities who are endorsing Cryptos seem blissfully unaware of the illegality of their actions. Time has come to remind them that they are not above the Law. @dugalira @kaul_vivek
2."All cyber activities or online gambling in India are regulated under the IT Act 2000. The Act prohibits online gambling activities & prescribes a punishment for persons indulging in such activities, would be fined Rs. 100,000 or would receive imprisonment of up to 5 years"
3.Why not implement the provisions of the Law on the Celebrities and show them the consequences of their actions since many naïve people may get trapped based on the message of the medium?. It is likely to have an immediate effect & the ads would stop. No?@RBI @SEBI_India
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
1. NIFTY FIFTY : Excerpted from an article by Stewart Investors. There was a category called 'Nifty Fifty" in the US too in the 60's & 70's.
The Nifty Fifty was a group of 50 stocks identified by market commentators, although it was never an official benchmark index.
2.The companies shared similar characteristics: high quality franchises benefitting from surging economic growth and strong balance sheets. Delivering healthy profits and good returns for investors year after year, they came to trade on very high valuations.
3. It was said by many investors at the time that Nifty Fifty stocks should be bought and never sold. By the early 1970s they had become the darlings of many institutional investors and staples of their portfolios.
Read 13 tweets
19 Oct
1. Momentum Investing: @deepakshenoy. I had Dinner with Deepak on 24th July & for more than 3 hours discussed anything & everything on the markets. Raised the issue of Small Case portfolios being negatively affected due to SEBI margining starting from Sep & affecting liquidity.
2. He was cool & collected as usual & said he would be able to manage the volatility since he has done that in the past & would get concerned only if the Small Cap Index starts trading down 10%+. Come August my fears seemed to be coming true (down 8 %),however Deepak held on.
3. The Aug. fall seemed to be an aberration. Soon after, the market took off & has gone up by nearly 10 % as of today over Jul 23rd. Kudos to him for being methodical in his approach. Was surprised that he was receiving "gyan" on his momentum approach.
Read 5 tweets
11 Oct
1.Interesting to note that D-Mart is making new highs on a day its rival is planning to open 7-11 stores in a BIG WAY. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market
2. Interesting to note a company which uses Coal as a RM going up when there are reports of huge Coal shortage. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market
3. Interesting to note an Index which is very interest rate sensitive making an ATH when the 10 y yield reaches a 6 month high. That's the "insanity" of a Bull Market.
Read 8 tweets
10 Oct
1. Will Air-India be an" Elephant in the Room" or a "White Elephant" for Tatas ? Some thoughts .
2.There has been almost universal approval of the Govt's decision to hive off Air-India. For the Govt it is like a Stop-Loss moment. The tax-payer benefits the most since he no longer will subsidise a losing proposition. The Govt. may actually benefit more than what appears.
3.While on the face of it Govt. is taking 46 K Cr. debt on its books, but it has got 3K Cr. Cash, will retain Real Estate & Sundry Assets. including the vast Art Collection, which insiders peg the value at more than Rs.5 K Cr. The RE can be packaged & monetised. Win-Win situation
Read 13 tweets
4 Oct
1. A brief summary of discussions on CH on 3/10/2021 "Will Oct spring a surprise - Lessons from History ". “October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. Others are July, Jan, Sept, Apr, Nov, May, March, June, Dec, August & Feb.”
― Mark Twain,
2. Oct has had the biggest fall (22 %) & the biggest rise (16 %) in a study of S&P 500 since 1964. Oct'29 & '87 are well known. In India too, Oct '94,'98,'08 are known for the downside while '07 rallied. In summary, Oct is a very "dangerous" month due to "mindless" volatility.
3.This time Oct is likely to witness the same kind of mindless volatility due to extended valuations; geo politics; RBI policy; Fed mischief, Inflationary trends, results season, China shenanigans etc .
Read 16 tweets

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