1. Recommended Reading for the Day: "What is the Tradeoff between COVID-19 and Economic Recovery?" by Peter Orazem of Iowa State. Very interesting reading card.iastate.edu/ag_policy_revi…
2. Begin with why I think this is such an interesting analysis. The reason is that Peter focuses on tradeoffs. Stock in trade of economists. Seems to me that this has been missing from much of the public debate about the societal response to the COVID pandemic.
3. We are used to dealing with cost benefit tradeoffs in virtually all of our existence. For example, we know that lowering the speed limit nationally to 25mph would save tens of thousands of lives every year. Yet we don't do this. Why? We don't think costs worth the benefits
4. For some reason, we have not wanted to face similar tradeoffs squarely in the face with COVID. A psychologist will have to explain why. This is why I think Peter's analysis of COVID and employment tradeoffs are so interesting.
5. Peter sorts COVID cases, size of labor force, and employment based on measure of the restrictiveness of COVID polices state by state over July 2019-July 2021. So, left on x axis is more restrictive COVID policies and right is less restrictive.
6. Peter found that, yup, states with less restrictive COVID policies had more COVID cases (blue), but employment was also higher in states with less restrictive policies (red). Makes sense to me.
7. In Peter's own words, "The states at the left side of figure 2 have decided to lower the risk of disease spread at the cost of lost jobs, while those at the right side have decided to take on more risk in order to generate more economic activity."
8. From a policy standpoint, should we be surprised that different states have chosen different tradeoffs between the risk of spreading COVID and economic growth? The US is a big country full of different opinions about the tradeoffs.

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More from @ScottIrwinUI

29 Oct
1. Weekend Reading: In my last weekend thread I highlighted a 1990 AJAE article on the reaction of the live hog futures market to the release of quarterly Hogs and Pigs Reports. An oldie but goodie. Going to roll the clock forward almost 30 years to an update of that work.
2. Two points before getting to the new paper. First, I actually kept up the series on pre-release trade guestimates for HPRs for the last 30 years. Second, incredibly fortunate to team up with Berna Karali at Georgia and Olga Isengildina-Massa at VPI for the new work.
3. Now a methodological point. My 1990 AJAE article looked at "market surprises" as a measure of informational impact of HPR. Difference between pre-release guestimates and USDA #. Since that time, much of the literature has adopted a simpler approach.
Read 13 tweets
27 Oct
1. Gary Schnitkey and team back this week with more on nitrogen fertilizer prices and corn production economics for 2022. Nitrogen prices have exploded in recent weeks. Up $278/ton in last two weeks alone! Image
2. The +$278/ton price increase for nitrogen (anhydrous ammonia) sounds very scary. However, we need to keep in mind several things. First, that translates into a $25/acre increase in fertilizer costs. Not chicken feed but also not huge compared to overall production expenses. Image
3. Second, I am firmly in the camp that farmers here in the heart of the Corn Belt over apply nitrogen by a bit. Research indicates nitrogen rates can be pulled back slightly without hurting corn yields. Do this and the $25/acre largely disappears. Image
Read 6 tweets
8 Oct
1. Weekend Reading: Decided to do a series that features my work over the years on USDA crop and livestock reports. If you look at my CV you might be shocked how many papers I have written on this topic. Why? The answer is in my new book, which is almost finished.
2. Taking a trip back in time this week to a 1990 AJAE article I wrote with my very first PhD student, Phil Colling, from my long ago days as a Buckeye. Phil just retired from the CFTC, so you know the paper was published awhile ago!
3. This was my very first paper on USDA reports, and it was a big hit for me early in my career. I was still an assistant professor when it was accepted. I think this is a free link to the pdf onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.230…
Read 10 tweets
7 Oct
1. I know I repeat myself, but I still think that an @RinnyTheGopher quote is perfect for the RIN market: It is the only market in history where the fundamental is political intrigue. No better proof than what is being reported today.
@RinnyTheGopher 2. @OPISBiofuels reporting this morning ***Ethanol RINs Down 10cts in Morning Volatility; Markets Stable at Midday.
@RinnyTheGopher @OPISBiofuels 3. "Sources attributed the morning instability on the ongoing speculation around when EPA will release its long-delayed proposals for Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) blending targets."
Read 5 tweets
1 Oct
1. Weekend Reading: As they used to say on Monty Python, "...and now for something completely different. A couple of years ago I wrote a paper with this title, "Writing Papers in Economics Using Fake Latex." The article is real. Here is the link onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
2. The back story for the paper will provide some insights into how faddish and tribal academics can be. Most people outside academics will be surprised how influential the physical appearance of a paper can be to other academics.
3. The "cool kids" in economics and lots of other STEM fields write papers in something called LaTeX. It was originally designed for desktop publishing, and I will be the first to admit that papers produced using this platform have a pleasing aesthetic appearance.
Read 12 tweets
29 Sep
1. Further confirmation that the leaked RVO numbers last week were real. This is quite a statement even considering how ferocious past battles in the #RFSwars have been.
2. Assuming the leaked numbers were right (at least at the time), I am still trying to figure out the political calculus of Biden Admin in going so anti-ag on the RVOs. Whatever your personal views on the RFS, the leaked proposal is indeed the worst ever from perspective of ag
3. Think about that. By all appearances, the Biden Admin is attacking the RFS more aggressively than even the Trump Admin. Who had that on their bingo card? I certainly did not.
Read 6 tweets

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