1. Weekend Reading: Decided to do a series that features my work over the years on USDA crop and livestock reports. If you look at my CV you might be shocked how many papers I have written on this topic. Why? The answer is in my new book, which is almost finished.
2. Taking a trip back in time this week to a 1990 AJAE article I wrote with my very first PhD student, Phil Colling, from my long ago days as a Buckeye. Phil just retired from the CFTC, so you know the paper was published awhile ago! 
3. This was my very first paper on USDA reports, and it was a big hit for me early in my career. I was still an assistant professor when it was accepted. I think this is a free link to the pdf onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.230…
4. So why study the Hogs and Pigs Report (HPR)? Two reasons. First, HPRs back in the 70s and 80s consistently caused the largest price moves I have ever seen following ag or non-ag public announcements. Hog futures hit daily price limit for HALF of the 28 HPRs we studied!
5. I could not dig out the exact numbers, but I know that back in those days there were several HPRs when hog futures were locked limit up or down for 3 or 4 days. That seems unimaginable today. Truly crazy price volatility. Think Trading Places with Eddie Murphy.
6. Why was the price reaction to HPRs so violent so frequently? Mainly it had to do with how hard it was to anticipate hog breeding herd numbers back then. The structure of the hog production industry was vastly different and much harder to predict breeding inventory.
7. The second reason we looked at HPRs is that Phil and I got a hold of data on pre-report estimates for HPRs. We were the first in ag econ to publish a paper using data on "market surprises." Sure that this new data was the reason we made it into the AJAE.
8. What did we find? Pretty much what you would expect. Large and significant price reactions to the "unanticipated" information (market surprise = USDA - pre-trade) in HPRs across the board.
9. This paper launched 30+ years of studying and analyzing USDA crop and livestock reports. Yes I admit to being obsessed. According to Google Scholar the paper has been cited 155 times and it still gets cited 5-6 times a year. Pretty good for a paper in its 4th decade.
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