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7 Oct, 5 tweets, 3 min read
1. I know I repeat myself, but I still think that an @RinnyTheGopher quote is perfect for the RIN market: It is the only market in history where the fundamental is political intrigue. No better proof than what is being reported today.
@RinnyTheGopher 2. @OPISBiofuels reporting this morning ***Ethanol RINs Down 10cts in Morning Volatility; Markets Stable at Midday.
@RinnyTheGopher @OPISBiofuels 3. "Sources attributed the morning instability on the ongoing speculation around when EPA will release its long-delayed proposals for Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) blending targets."
@RinnyTheGopher @OPISBiofuels 4. "Hearing rumors RVO won't happen until after budget and infrastructure are done," one trader told OPIS, while others said they heard the RVOs could be released today.
@RinnyTheGopher @OPISBiofuels 5. I don't know how you could get more extreme opinions about when we will see the new RVOs!!

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Scott Irwin Profile picture
8 Oct
1. Weekend Reading: Decided to do a series that features my work over the years on USDA crop and livestock reports. If you look at my CV you might be shocked how many papers I have written on this topic. Why? The answer is in my new book, which is almost finished.
2. Taking a trip back in time this week to a 1990 AJAE article I wrote with my very first PhD student, Phil Colling, from my long ago days as a Buckeye. Phil just retired from the CFTC, so you know the paper was published awhile ago! Image
3. This was my very first paper on USDA reports, and it was a big hit for me early in my career. I was still an assistant professor when it was accepted. I think this is a free link to the pdf onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.230… Image
Read 10 tweets
Scott Irwin Profile picture
1 Oct
1. Weekend Reading: As they used to say on Monty Python, "...and now for something completely different. A couple of years ago I wrote a paper with this title, "Writing Papers in Economics Using Fake Latex." The article is real. Here is the link onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
2. The back story for the paper will provide some insights into how faddish and tribal academics can be. Most people outside academics will be surprised how influential the physical appearance of a paper can be to other academics.
3. The "cool kids" in economics and lots of other STEM fields write papers in something called LaTeX. It was originally designed for desktop publishing, and I will be the first to admit that papers produced using this platform have a pleasing aesthetic appearance.
Read 12 tweets
Scott Irwin Profile picture
29 Sep
1. Further confirmation that the leaked RVO numbers last week were real. This is quite a statement even considering how ferocious past battles in the #RFSwars have been.
2. Assuming the leaked numbers were right (at least at the time), I am still trying to figure out the political calculus of Biden Admin in going so anti-ag on the RVOs. Whatever your personal views on the RFS, the leaked proposal is indeed the worst ever from perspective of ag
3. Think about that. By all appearances, the Biden Admin is attacking the RFS more aggressively than even the Trump Admin. Who had that on their bingo card? I certainly did not.
Read 6 tweets
Scott Irwin Profile picture
28 Sep
1. Given strong evidence now that leaked RVO numbers were legit, we can now consider further how the Biden EPA is going to justify the cuts.
2. I have talked a lot about the "intentionally late gambit" for crushing the RVOs, particularly for the conventional ethanol mandate. Biden EPA could clearly use this for cutting 2020 RVO by arguing compliance is late. Probably do so for 2021. But 2022?
3. Since the leaked RVOs included substantial cuts to the conventional mandate for all three years for 2021-2022, I no longer think this is the justification being used to crush the RVOs for all three years. Instead, they went were even the Trump EPA dared not tread.
Read 7 tweets
Scott Irwin Profile picture
28 Sep
1. Article contained a quote about corn prices going under $4 next year. Some clarification will be helpful. I don't think that will happen until summer 2022 at the earliest. Obviously weather dependent as well.
2. My thinking is that there is going to be a major global acreage response to the current high grain prices, even considering the ongoing run up in input costs. Land prices and rents going up is the norm as grain prices go up. Other inputs too.
3. Market analysts, myself included, were surprised by the muted acreage response to the higher grain prices in 2021. Maybe I will be wrong again, but history suggests a strong US acreage response in 2022. Maybe 183 million acres + combined US corn/soy planted acreage.
Read 4 tweets
Scott Irwin Profile picture
22 Sep
1. Put together this handy cheat sheet for the leaked RFS RVO numbers in the @OPISBiofuels article this morning. Also included the current "final" RVOs for 2020 and the "timecopped" adjusted RVO for 2020 (h/t to Rinny for always have the pithiest description!)
@OPISBiofuels 2. The only bone thrown out to ag is the increase in the advanced to 6.7 billion gallons in 2022. One way to benchmark these numbers is to compare the total RVO to the 20.09 total RVO currently on the books for 2020: -2.96BG in 2020, -1.462BG in 2021, & +0.675BG in 2022.
@OPISBiofuels 3. Using the current 2020 total RVO as the benchmark, the leaked RVOs for 2020-2020 result in a total RVO cut of 3.747 billion gallons. Would have to go back to check for sure, but think it would make the Biden Admin a bigger chopper of the RFS than even the Trump Admin.
Read 7 tweets

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