The *advanced* estimate is 2.0 percent, caused by a massive drop in consumer spending. I will bet you a donut the November revision will be much lower.
bea.gov/news/2021/gros…
bea.gov/news/2021/gros…
https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1453716341890981892
"Disposable personal income decreased $29.4 billion, or 0.7 percent, in the third quarter"... as measured.
This is where you will see the next revision drop the advanced estimate number much further. Disposable income in Q3 shrunk much more than 0.7%
This is where you will see the next revision drop the advanced estimate number much further. Disposable income in Q3 shrunk much more than 0.7%
This is where you see the contraction. The revision in a few weeks will be more dramatic. Meaning these numbers will be worse. 
What you are seeing there is exactly what we are doing as consumers. We are spending more on fuel, energy, housing and food (inflation). We are not spending on durable goods - at all.
bea.gov/sites/default/…
bea.gov/sites/default/…
U.S. consumer purchases, ie. retail sales, account for two-thirds of our GDP.
When food units cost more unit sales do not increase. A 2 lemon purchaser still buys 2 lemons, only at a higher price.
Durable goods sales collapsed in Q3, & has not yet been accurately quantified.
When food units cost more unit sales do not increase. A 2 lemon purchaser still buys 2 lemons, only at a higher price.
Durable goods sales collapsed in Q3, & has not yet been accurately quantified.
Lastly look at import/exports and notice the net impact is not yet quantified.
Exports add to our GDP, but now they are negative (we are shipping less goods).
Imports deduct from our GDP (they dropped, which is ok) However, our exports dropped much more than our imports.
Exports add to our GDP, but now they are negative (we are shipping less goods).
Imports deduct from our GDP (they dropped, which is ok) However, our exports dropped much more than our imports.
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