Much of the discussion is still about AY.4.2, which is still slowly 📈 in the UK, which they have designated as a 'variant under investigation' (VUI). (2/6)
In the US, bonafide AY.4.2 sequences with at least 2/3 of NSP3:A1711V, S:Y145H, or S:A222V are quite rare. Probably less than 10. We haven't sequenced any from Connecticut yet. (4/6)
With our own tracking, the effective reproductive numbers (Rt) for the most common Delta lineages in Connecticut are dropping < 1 (indicating that transmission is 📉). We also don't see any differences that would suggest one is more transmissible. (5/6)
I'll have more on this tomorrow, but I wanted to take another opportunity to thank @JosephFauver for all the work that he did to establish our surveillance system! He's been a HUGE part of our success.
PS. Adding this to the thread. AY.4.2 does not seem to directly lower vaccine effectiveness. However, if it causes an increase in cases due to higher transmissibility, it could slightly lower VE through more exposures.
BTW @kallmemeg is worth the follow for the AY.4.2 info.
Effective reproductive number (Rt) estimates for the top Delta lineages in Connecticut.
➡️All are now <1, suggesting that transmission is 📉.
➡️The relative similar Rt values suggest that they are of similar transmissibility. (2/12)
Last week we reported AY.4 was ~27%, and this week its 4%. The sudden 📉 is not due to more refined classifications. Its hard to distinguish between closely related sequences, and a dropout in some Delta spike sequences makes it even harder. (3/12)
B.1.617.2 is decreasing primarily because these sequences are being classified as other sublineages. Otherwise, the Delta AY sublineage frequencies are remaining very stable and there is currently *no evidence that any are more transmissible* in Connecticut. (3/6)
Delta sub-lineage AY.12, with the Spike T791I mutation, has received some attention because its 60-80% in Israel, but its not currently increasing globally. Its been mostly hovering between 4-6% since mid-June.
Alpha is the first variant to hit the news, and concern over its emergence was the primary motivating factor for the construction of our state genomic surveillance system. Because of our rapid increase in sequencing, we've been able to detect other variants much earlier. (3/10)