🧬10/28 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT | @jacksonlab | @CTDPH | @YaleSPH | @Yalemed

👑Delta - 100% (408/408)

📊Top lineages
55% = B.1.617.2
19% = AY.25
9% = AY.3
5% = AY.20
3% = AY.39
3% = AY.24
2% = AY.26

short 🧵 | Report 👉
covidtrackerct.com/variant-survei…
Much of the discussion is still about AY.4.2, which is still slowly 📈 in the UK, which they have designated as a 'variant under investigation' (VUI). (2/6)

The early estimates are that AY.4.2 is ~15% more transmissible, which you can learn more about in this great 🧵. (3/6)

In the US, bonafide AY.4.2 sequences with at least 2/3 of NSP3:A1711V, S:Y145H, or S:A222V are quite rare. Probably less than 10. We haven't sequenced any from Connecticut yet. (4/6)

With our own tracking, the effective reproductive numbers (Rt) for the most common Delta lineages in Connecticut are dropping < 1 (indicating that transmission is 📉). We also don't see any differences that would suggest one is more transmissible. (5/6)
I'll have more on this tomorrow, but I wanted to take another opportunity to thank @JosephFauver for all the work that he did to establish our surveillance system! He's been a HUGE part of our success.

Thank you, man cub 🦁 (6/6)

PS. Adding this to the thread. AY.4.2 does not seem to directly lower vaccine effectiveness. However, if it causes an increase in cases due to higher transmissibility, it could slightly lower VE through more exposures.

BTW @kallmemeg is worth the follow for the AY.4.2 info.

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More from @NathanGrubaugh

21 Oct
🧬10/21 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT | @jacksonlab | @CTDPH | @YaleSPH | @Yalemed

👑Delta - 99.7% (336/337)

📊Top lineages
39% = B.1.617.2
22% = AY.25
13% = AY.39
7% = AY.3
4% = AY.4 (not UK AY.4.2)
4% = AY.20

short 🧵 | Report 👉
covidtrackerct.com/variant-survei…
Effective reproductive number (Rt) estimates for the top Delta lineages in Connecticut.

➡️All are now <1, suggesting that transmission is 📉.

➡️The relative similar Rt values suggest that they are of similar transmissibility. (2/12)
Last week we reported AY.4 was ~27%, and this week its 4%. The sudden 📉 is not due to more refined classifications. Its hard to distinguish between closely related sequences, and a dropout in some Delta spike sequences makes it even harder. (3/12)

Read 13 tweets
16 Sep
🧬 9/16 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT | @jacksonlab | @CTDPH | @YaleSPH | @Yalemed

👑Delta - 99.6% (480 sequenced)
Mu - 0.2% (1 sequenced)
Non-VOI/C - 0.2% (1 sequenced, B.1.517)

Delta >99% in last 4 reports

short 🧵 | Report 👉
covidtrackerct.com/variant-survei…
Connecticut Delta sublineage frequencies for the week of 9/6 (weekly % change over previous 3 weeks)

B.1.617.2 - 44% (📉7%, 📉1%, 📉4%)
AY.25 - 23% (📈3%, 0%, 📈2%)
AY.3 - 11% (📈2%, 📈1%, 📉1%)
AY.12 - 10% (📉1%, 📈2%, 📈2%)
All others - 11% combined

(2/6)
B.1.617.2 is decreasing primarily because these sequences are being classified as other sublineages. Otherwise, the Delta AY sublineage frequencies are remaining very stable and there is currently *no evidence that any are more transmissible* in Connecticut. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
2 Sep
🧬 9/2 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT | @jacksonlab | @CTDPH | @YaleSPH | @Yalemed

Delta - 99.6% (530 sequenced)
Gamma - 0.4% (2 sequenced)
Mu - 0%
All others - 0%

short 🧵 | Report 👉
covidtrackerct.com/variant-survei…
Delta is split up into 25 sub-lineages - mostly for tracking purposes. These are the top in CT, along with their defining mutations.

B.1.617.2 - 57%
AY.25 - 18% - synonymous mutation
AY.12 - 10% - Spike T791I
AY.3 - 8% - Orf1ab I3731V

Please read on...
(2/8)
Delta sub-lineage AY.12, with the Spike T791I mutation, has received some attention because its 60-80% in Israel, but its not currently increasing globally. Its been mostly hovering between 4-6% since mid-June.

Fig from @DiseaseOutbreak
tinyurl.com/3xvnhvyh
(3/8)
Read 8 tweets
19 Aug
🧬8/19 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT | @jacksonlab | @CTDPH | @YaleSPH | @YaleMed

Delta - 96% (📈1%)
B.1.621 - 2.5% (📉1%)
Alpha - 0.8% (📈0.8%)
All others - 0.6%

*0⃣ sequenced other VOC cases this week*

short 🧵 | Report 👉
covidtrackerct.com/variant-survei…
Delta was recently split into several sublineages to help investigate clusters and spread. Here are their frequencies in CT:

B.1.617.2 - 46-56%
AY.4 - 14-28%
AY.12 - 11-14%
AY.3 - 5-8%
AY.6 - 4-6%
AY.3.1 - 1%
AY.10 - <1%

These are all Delta (not 'Delta-plus', just Delta) (2/7) Image
There are lots of people seeing these sublineage data👆 and speculatively wildly about some being more transmissible/dangerous.

**The lineages were assigned based on epidemiology**

Please read this thread before falling victim to speculation. (3/7)

Read 7 tweets
12 Aug
🧬8/12 Connecticut #SARSCoV2 variant surveillance
@CovidCT | @jacksonlab | @CTDPH | @YaleSPH | @Yalemed

Delta - 95% (📈7%)
B.1.621 - 4% (📉4%)
Gamma - <1% (📉3%)
Alpha - 0% (📈1%)

State infections = 55/100k pop/day
State Rt = 1.2

short 🧵 | Report 👉
covidtrackerct.com/variant-survei…
217 days ago we reported the first B.1.1.7 (now called Alpha) cases in Connecticut. For the first time since then we report 0⃣ Alpha cases.

Lets quickly recap Alpha's reign (2/10)

Alpha is the first variant to hit the news, and concern over its emergence was the primary motivating factor for the construction of our state genomic surveillance system. Because of our rapid increase in sequencing, we've been able to detect other variants much earlier. (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
10 Aug
UPDATE: GISAID put a fix in place to accept these sequences, and any sequence with a known FRAMESHIFT, w/o confirmation. 🍻👏

Here's what you need to do. Its pretty easy. 🧵 (1/6)
If you go to the Upload > Batch Upload tab, you should see the new "Confirmation options" dropdown menu highlighted in yellow. (2/6)
Now you have options!

The Default is as before, any sequencing with FRAMESHIFTS, like B.1.621, will be kicked back for confirmation and resubmission.

I don't recommend using the default. (3/6)
Read 7 tweets

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