Obviously it's *way* to early (literally first day of spoilers lol) to say anything for sure about the new set, Crimson Vow, but I already have some thoughts, mostly based on comparing mechanics, on how I suspect this set will play out compared to Midnight Hunt. 1/x
MID was all about efficiency and going wide: disturb and flashback gave you a lot of cheap plays, disturb and decayed meant boards were wide (magnified by decayed not blocking, so boards were wider on attacks), and plentiful efficient removal (plus Flip) punished going tall. 2/x
Werewolves in MID suffered both because a) they were playing on the wrong axis (their big threats were punished by removal and couldn't deal with decayed zombies well), and b) they were constantly being forced to play during the day because everyone was double spelling. 3/x
This is exemplified in the top commons of each color - Lunarch Veteran especially as the pinnacle of efficient tempo, but also Organ Hoarder and Eccentric Farmer to keep the gas flowing, and Ecstatic Awakener as both tempo and card draw. 4/x
And, of course, Neonate's Rush being better than Moonrager's Slash - this really points to a format where getting those small edges with cards like Rush (with its ping and 2-for-1 potential) is more important than dealing with a singular threat (which is all Slash does). 5/x
But just looking at the mechanics in Crimson Vow, I can already tell that it's going to be different. I found this most apparent when comparing mechanics between sets, so let's walk through some comparisons. (here's the mechanics article for reference magic.wizards.com/en/articles/ar…) 6/x
First of all, the GW mechanic in VOW is Training, compared to Coven in MID. Coven required different powers, so did reward big creatures a bit, but the most important part was getting 3 creatures at all. Train, on the other hand, cares a lot about having a big creature. 7/x
Next, instead of Flashback on spells, we have Cleave, which reads very similar to Kicker. These might seem pretty similar - they both give you two ways to cast a spell, one cheaper, and one more expensive. 8/x
The key difference here comes when you draw one in the lategame. For Flashback, you have to cast the front half first, so you get two small effects, one that's relatively efficient, one overcosted. But for Cleave (if it's like Kicker), you instead get one big flashy effect. 9/x
And this doesn't just apply to topdecks - with a Cleave card you're incentivized to hold it in hand to save it for when you can pay the more expensive cost, where for Flashback you're incentivized to double spell with the front half early. 10/x
We still have Disturb, but whereas in MID the backsides of Disturb creatures were creatures, in VOW the backsides will be auras. It's pretty obvious that this will lead to going taller rather than wider, but also it looks like the backsides might be generally more expensive. 11/x
This is just speculation from the few cards spoiled so far, but that would also make sense - it's hard to make a cheap aura that doesn't cost a card, but easy to make a cheap small creature that doesn't. Compare Baithook Angler to Drogskol Infantry. 12/x
A weird comparison is Decayed vs. Exploit. On one hand, you could make the obvious observation that one makes your board wider (Decayed), and the other shrinks your board (Exploit), but on the other hand Exploit could point towards token/attrition themes to support it. 13/x
I think more significant is just the absence of Decayed tokens - I don't expect Exploit to be that central to the format, whereas the dynamic of Decayed zombies making boards wider on attacks but not blocks did a ton in shaping the playstyle of MID. 14/x
And finally, Blood tokens vs. Clue tokens. It's tempting to call Blood tokens just worse than Clue tokens, but I think it also points to how I suspect VOW will be more about big threats and going tall, compared to MID being about efficiency and tempo. 15/x
Slightly inefficient card draw plays much better with decks filled with efficient plays - cards like Lunarch Veteran or Eaten Alive. Rummaging isn't very valuable when you're likely to leverage your cheap plays, and just want to draw into more efficient gas. 16/x
On the flip side, paying 2 to draw a card is worse for big, expensive threats - your individual cards do more on their own, so you need less card quantity. Cheap rummaging provides what you really need - filtering to ensure you hit your land drops and play on curve. 17/x
Conclusion: it's way to early to say for sure, but looking at mechanics gives me plenty of reason to believe that, where MID was all about tempo, efficiency, and going wide, VOW will be about big spells and going tall. Maybe werewolves will be playable this time ;) 18/18

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More from @JasonILTG

25 Oct
Random thought from some Discord discussion: one problem with how some people use 17lands data, that has existed before 17lands though things like hypergeometric calculations, is that people like quantifying things, but often don't actually connect numbers to actual meaning. 1/x
Example: let's say I'm trying to decide whether to keep or mull a 2 land hand, and calculate that I have an 85% chance of drawing my third land by turn 3. One might say "85% is pretty good, I'd keep". But an annoyance I have is that I don't really know what this means! 2/x
How do you know that 85% is "pretty good"? Sure, it's a relatively high number, but I'd bet most people who might make such a statement don't really think through what the number means, and just like that it's high. At what number would you mull the hand? 80%? 75%? 70%? 3/x
Read 11 tweets
25 Oct
I know a lot of people like making tierlists for Storybook Brawl heroes, but I really don't like tierlists, so instead here's a thread with some thoughts I have on the strengths and weaknesses of every hero in SBB, sorted by my avg placement with them on this patch: 1/x
First up: I have not played Evella, Gepetto, Jack's Giant, Krampus, Mrs. Claus, Pan's Shadow, Pup the Magic Dragon, or The Fates on this patch, but they all seem like fairly medium midgame stats heroes to me. Some are probably better than others, idk. 2/x
I also haven't played Grandmother on this patch, but from previous patches, I would treat it similarly to the above midgame stats heroes - one of the main benefits of midgame stats is saving HP, and 10 extra HP is a lot; plus, +3/+3 is big enough to be relevant lategame. 3/x
Read 37 tweets
24 Oct
Made it to top 32 in the #SBBTourney, which should be starting soon. Streaming my view at twitch.tv/jasoniltg with a 15 minute delay!

You can also find the official coverage at twitch.tv/storybookbrawl and the leaderboard at sbb-tournaments.netlify.app/2021-october-l…
Looks like I'm in the featured pod too!
Unfortunately starting with a 6th with weak hero choices - never really leveraged Charon well, starting on a Happy Little Tree but not finding further scaling to run it, and not getting a critical Poly slay on 4.0. Will have to place extremely well in the next two to get top 8.
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
Streaming day 2 of the #SBBTourney with 15 minute delay, starting soon! (Should have mic this time; hopefully the delay works)

Oh also - you can watch the coverage here: twitch.tv/storybookbrawl

And you can follow the standings here:
Starting off with a first is very nice! Very strong early start, leveraged with Piggy Bank plus kissing a Brave Princess three times to get Ashwood+ while on lvl. 4. Cat's Call let me put the nail in the coffin against Medusa Mirror Mirror Hoard Dragon.
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
Streaming the #SBBTourney now! (5 minute stream delay, mostly not reading chat)

First round is a Pants first! Got hatball pretty early (I think it took 3 or 4 lvl. 3 triples?). Never found Fork/Wand, but it was enough. Image
Second round is 5th with Mad Catter - strong midgame and got a bunch of random 6s from Ogre Princess+, but didn't get anything coherent and died with Herc+Treasure Map about to go off Image
Read 9 tweets
17 Oct
Very interesting video from jorbs (excellent strategy game streamer who mostly streams Slay the Spire) on how he thinks about strategy games. I would highly recommend watching the video yourself, but I figured I'd do a thread connecting some of his ideas to MtG draft. 1/x
Again, want to stress that I'd highly recommend watching the video first! jorbs uses a lot of Slay the Spire examples, but the concepts are applicable to all sorts of strategy games (and life in general). This thread is just me applying those ideas specifically to MtG draft. 2/x
First, a small overview: the main concept jorbs talks about in his video is what he dubs "loose Bayesian knowledge" - he approaches strategy games by having prior expectations and hypotheses that he updates through his experiences playing and experimenting in those games. 3/x
Read 17 tweets

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