JPR007 Profile picture
29 Oct, 11 tweets, 2 min read
Tesla has booked 45 GWh of Lithium Iron Phosphate LFP batteries from Chinese power cell giant CATL for next year's sales plan, primarily for the Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, 36kr reported today
cnevpost.com/2021/10/29/tes…
In addition to booking 45 GWh of batteries from CATL, Tesla plans to add to existing orders, and the two sides are already in talks, the report said, citing people familiar with the matter

CATL would not comment, the report said
Tesla and Panasonic's Nevada battery plant will also expand to produce more than 40 GWh in 2022, and together with supplies from LG Chem, Tesla's 2022 sales will be at least 1.5 million units, the report said, citing industry sources
The move is expected to further increase the installed base of LFP batteries

According to the data, China's power battery installed base in September was 15.7 GWh, up +138.6% YOY and +25% from August MOM
Data released earlier this month by the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance showed that LFP battery installations in China have continued to grow in the past two months after surpassing ternary batteries for the first time this year in July
Among them, ternary batteries installed a total of 6.1GWh, up +45.6% YOY and up +15% MOM from August.

However, LFP battery installation volume increased even more, with 9.5GWh installed in September, up +309.3% YOY and +32.3% MOM compared with August
Both the Model 3 and Model Y with LFP batteries are currently available in standard range versions, with the former having a 55-kWh battery capacity and the latter 60 kWh

This means the 45GWh battery order could correspond to nearly 800,000 vehicles, the report said
This exceeds Tesla's total global sales of 627,350 vehicles in the first three quarters of the year combined

In the first three quarters, Model 3 and Model Y sales totaled 614,165 units
Tesla's earnings report last week showed it posted record revenue of $13.757 billion in the third quarter, up +57% from a year earlier and above the $13.63 billion expected by analysts according to Refinitiv
It was also the fourth consecutive quarter that Tesla's revenue exceeded $10 billion

Tesla expects to deliver nearly 900,000 vehicles for the full year of 2021, with its goal of increasing deliveries by more than 50 percent from last year's nearly 500,000
The company said at the time that for standard range vehicles, Tesla is moving to LFP batteries globally

And they can be used for Energy Storage System batteries too

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More from @jpr007

29 Oct
FT THINKS TESLA IS A "DILEMMA FOR INVESTORS"

The current angst that the FT is reporting in some parts of the "investment community" tells us more about the woefully inadequate state of most investment analysis than it does about the fair value of TSLA shares
Let's examine this a bit more closely :

1. Equity Investment is about buying growth

- and the best growth to buy is that which will continue for a long time

2. To be able to see and buy growth you have to look out out into the future at least 5 years and preferably 10 years
3. When Buying a stock it is largely irrelevant what today's or next year's earnings are or what today's or next year's P/E Multiple is or will be

- and yet that is all you hear most of the time
Read 9 tweets
29 Oct
Arriva's first hydrogen bus only arrived in the Achterhoek this week

And it has already caught fire

The fire department says it can only extinguish the fire on the bus from the outside

There was also a regular bus in the shed besides the new bus
gld.nl/nieuws/7427452…
"It's not nice that the brand new and first hydrogen bus has burned down," says an Arriva spokesperson

"But we think it's more important that everyone is in safety and no one was injured"

The new bus was to be used in the Achterhoek region

Which line is not known
Arriva cannot yet say whether there will be a new hydrogen bus

At carrier Arriva on Industriestraat in Doetinchem, a large fire raged in a shed on Thursday afternoon

As the hydrogen-powered bus burned down the fire caused the rest of the building to go up in flames as well
Read 7 tweets
28 Oct
NOTE FOR THE FILE 20211028

VW has abandoned the majority of their failed product offering in the ID.4 according to ADAC

And are instead focusing their efforts on this one updated model
It had been offered in Germany as an underpowered and underperforming model with :

- 109 kW Electric Motor

- 10.9 seconds 0-100 km Acceleration time

- 16.7 kWh per 100 km Consumption

- Range of 311 km Calculated / 345 km WLTP

for a List Price of €36,950 / €38,215 Delivered
It has now been upgraded to AWD with :

- 150 kW + 80 kW Electric Motors giving a combined 220 kW

- 6.2 seconds 0-100 km Acceleration time

- 18.2 kWh per 100 km Consumption

- Range of 482 km Calculated / 421 km WLTP

for a List Price of €50,415 / €53,515 Delivered
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct
SWEDISH HERTZ REJECTS THE TESLA DEAL

Hertz's global business model is based on franchising, and in Sweden the rights are held by First Rent a Car AB

- We are owned by Volvo Cars and mainly provide Volvo and Polestar, says Swedish Hertz
mestmotor.se/recharge/artik…
Cecilia Saberi, communications manager at Swedish Hertz, tells Dagens Industri that customers have been asking if Tesla cars will be available for rent in Sweden

The answer is no

Swedish Hertz itself decides which cars to buy
And its ownership by Volvo is a strong reason for them not to buy Teslas in Sweden

"Right now we are seeing a high demand among electric cars for the Polestar - a car that we are unique in offering to our customers" says Michel Basberber, Hertz sales manager in Sweden
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
HOLON INVESTMENTS - REPORT ON TESLA - 2021

This week Holon Investments published a very interesting and well laid-out report on Tesla

- with a headline Target Price of $3,369 per share

How does this valuation look when reviewed under our criteria for Real Equity Investing ?
They are clearly not framing their recommendation based on current performance

And with a time horizon of 2050 they are certainly looking out far into the future

So let's take a closer look at how they came up with a $3,369 valuation
They have developed a very detailed financial model with clear assumptions

And they have used an internal Discounted Cash Flow analysis to establish their valuation

Here is their summary Income Statement
Read 19 tweets
23 Oct
REAL EQUITY INVESTING

Investment analysts and money investors frequently make many different kinds of mistakes when valuing companies as Real Equity Investments

These include :
And there are more, although the others are mostly secondary errors rather than primary errors

Now let's take a quick look at each point
1. INVESTING BASED ON THE COMPANY'S CURRENT PERFORMANCE

Real Equity Investing is all about where the company will be in the future, not in the present

This is most fundamental

Without a future view any activity with the stock is just trading and not investing
Read 17 tweets

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