Re hospitalisations and deaths TBH the numbers are still too small to be sure so keep a watchful eye on this over the next few weeks and hope that youth vaccination and booster shots in the over 60s pick up pace.
(About half of those eligible for boosters have received it - leaving about a 5.9 mill gap a couple of days ago) , and only 19% of young teens)
That red line is DELTA AY4.2.and you can see it gaining on DELTA AY4.1
The dark purple wedge to the bottom right of this graph puts AY4.2 in the context of AY4.1(paler purple).
But you can see that growth of the dark purple wedge in the bottom RH side of each regional graph is a bit smoother in some regions than others.
SW is noticeably steeper rise…likely as a result of so many false negatives arising from the #ImmensaLab fallout.
Should smooth out
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Following in from @karamballes review of the JVCI meeting in May prior to the MHRA authorisation of the Pfizer vaccine for over 11 yr olds on June 4th.
Let’s have a look at child cases just to the beginning of October (when they have continued to soar (h/t @Dr_D_Robertson )
Or, based on ONS surveillance from September by which time all adults had been offered vaccination and most if not all had time to be double jabbed .
The horizontal axis. Young on left. Old in the right.
Percentage infected on vertical axis. H/t @PaulMainwood
Yet it seems the JVCI made its decision in May in part on the basis that “all adults will be vaccinated and there is a low risk of child to child transmission. Staff and parents will be protected”
9.2k cases is roughly equivalent to 55k cases in the U.K. and, following the relaxation of measures, cases and hospitalisations have been rising rapidly, despite 86% of it adult population (75% of whole pop) being fully vaxxed.
UK statistics tsar rebukes UKHSA over flawed jabs data
“Those numbers were misleading & wrong & we’ve made it v clear to UKHSA. I’m lost for words at the willingness to publish a table that led people to believe that, with a footnote that was too weak” ft.com/content/a51f85…
The NIMS v ONS denominator debate continues to hot up with criticism still robust regarding the latest attempt to “correct” by the UKHSA, sticking with NIMS but adding two pages of caveats.
Still the main (wrong) impression is vaccinated more likely to get infected than unvaxxed
David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge university, a statistical research institute, said the “minor changes” failed to address the problem.