Chancellor says this Budget does not “draw a line under Covid” still “challenging months ahead”.... But he says “today’s Budget does begin the work of preparing for a new economy post Covid. The Prime Minister’s economy of higher wages, higher skills, and rising productivity”
Chancellor says OBR predicts average inflation of 4% over next year and the “pressures caused by supply chains and energy prices will take months to ease. It would be irresponsible for anyone to pretend that we can solve this overnight”
Chancellor speaking to Andrew Marr... says there will be “investment across the board” in public services on Wednesday - suggesting some top ups to those unprotected areas set for immediate further squeezes
Marr asks Chancellor if workers should take PMs words and ask their bosses for a pay rise... he points out that real wages are higher than pre pandemic, concludes “in order to make it sustainable we must invest in skills”
“Believe me I wish I didn’t have to raise taxes” Chancellor says to Marr... also articulates the argument I wrote about last month - that the income tax rise would have to be 2p in £, whereas with NI its 1.25p for both employers and employees...
On comparative Covid picture - interesting thing, noticed by pretty senior UK officials too, about being in Washington DC last week, was it felt like being transported back to UK early spring.
Everyone wearing masks indoors, many outside too...
And just whole town feeling empty
DC has broadly comparable vaccination rates - partial - 72% vs 73%, full 60% vs 67%... but completely different in relation to opening up. Goes to show what many economists stressed - lifting lockdowns is one thing, people to have confidence to end voluntary social distancing too
There are relatively few people able to make such comparisons because ordinary travel to US from UK still just about banned until November, we were allowed under State Dept exemption...
Perhaps its consequence of POTUS focus on caution/ masks etc ...
NEW
Hastily deleted Govt Net Zero research paper, suggests
🍖 shift diet habits to plant based & producers/retailer tax on high carbon foods
🌱 policy “to normalise plant based food”
✈️ make in person meetings requiring biz flights “immoral indulgence” bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Government swiftly, deleted & disowned “BEIS Research Paper Number 2021/063” written by the Nudge Unit, aka the Behavioural Insights Team famous for sugar levy and “herd immunity” comments...
source: “We have no plans whatsoever to dictate consumer behaviour in this way”
Govt say was never policy, was part of range of inputs into Net Zero strategy considered, but then did not make it into policy... and shouldn’t have been published.
But it shows what influential team say is necessary as regards a Government “nudging” consumers towards net zero
Treasury net zero review is very interesting, in green terms, but also as a mere statement of strategy - eg openly pointing to poor UK productivity performance, in the last few years again the worst in G7 for investment, having been overtaken by Italy...
*Levelling up* code alert - will green policy on cars eventually subsidise wealthy Tesla-drivers in cities, & punish less well off drivers who stick with petrol/diesel for longer, Treasury muses to itself....
Also the £30bn elephant in the room known as “VED” or road-pricing...
Also this translated -
We’ll have to tax gas more and electricity less, because although electricity is now very low carbon/ renewable, we load all carbon levies on to it rather than tax the actual carbon in gas.
But right now after the gas price quadrupled to a record? 2022!
Food & Drink Federation chief Ian Wright tells MPs hospitality inflation is running at 14-18%, which is “terrifying”, says it is a precursor to retail, relays story from the 70s of supermarket prices rising twice in a day… says we can’t go back to that…
“says inflation is bigger scourge than anything else esp for levelling up because it discriminates against the poor…” first part about shortages on shelves - said seasonal produce, traditionally given top place on supermarket aisles replaced by lynx deodorant as that’s available
FDF also broke down the different dynamics of labour shortage, in particular the hundreds of thousands of EU workers WITH settled status, who have nonetheless gone home and not returned (so not a Brexit issue on its own, but In combination with pandemic/ lifestyle changes etc…