Psychohistory is a fictional science that Asimov imagined. It is a science that predicts the evolution of civilization that is independent of individuals. It's analogous to how we might predict the behavior of macroscopic objects with only granular information about the parts.
What is the closest thing in today's scientific culture that is like Psychohistory?
Over a decade ago, there was activity on a field known as Memetics. It eventually declined, but I'm unsure as to why it did. This is perhaps related to the fictional Psychohistory. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memetics
With the discovery of the outsized effect of social media in today's political discourse, perhaps we might need to revisit the Memetics literature. There is mounting evidence that our civilization evolves through the establishment of memes.
Just look at the path that the UK is heading towards. Is this not a consequence of a meme? A meme that says that the British are losing their own identity and hence need to isolate themselves before it is too late?
What about the Trump meme? That the norms of civilization are the root cause of the loss of agency in this world. Norms of civility, norms of science and public health, norms of truth all need to get thrown out so a few can regain their lost agency in this world.
The anti-vax meme has nothing to do with any scientific discovery. It's anti-scientific. However, it is a knee-jerk reaction to a loss of agency. The agency of an individual should be sacrosanct over the collective needs of society. It's the free-loader problem in disguise.
Individual behavior does not have a huge effect on society unless it becomes a meme that is able to propagate and affect behavior at a larger scale. It is thus a surprise to me that Memetics isn't a science that has a lot of following. How does society evolve if not for memes?
A meme has a replication mechanism that is analogous to a virus. The failure of the US response to a real virus pandemic is a consequence of a competing information virus pandemic. We have social media to blame as a medium that accelerates the information spread.
But unlike a physical virus where you can mandate quarantines and hygienic practices, we were too slow to institute the equivalent of quarantines and hygiene for information dissemination. You might ask, why does information have an esteemed status?
The Chinese government institutes draconian control of information. There is a strong belief in the CCP that to maintain the monopoly of governance, they must absolutely control the memes.
The current disfunction in US federal governance is a consequence of a meme war. Some call this a 'culture war', but this only elevates the status of what it actually is. A lot of the dynamics are no different from fandom between two opposing sports teams.
The memes are devoid of semantics other than the need to signal that one is part of your team. In ancient Rome, there were massive riots instigated between supporters of different chariot racing teams. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nika_riots
Genocides are a consequence of the viral propagation of memes. What predispositions an entire society to send people to the gulag if not for a viral meme? Society is a willing victim to these information objects that are often devoid of grounding in reality.
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