Thread by @RichardWWard1

/1 BOTH vaccines AND prior infection provide resistance to COVID-19 infection.

Vaccination MUCH safer than getting an infection though.

With this propaganda blurb, @CDCgov crawls into the gutter with Oklahoma's @SenatorLankford.

Deception for a good cause is not good.

(more)

/2 @CDCgov might think deception for a good cause (getting people vaccinated) might be needed to counter deception for a bad cause (political opportunism by Oklahoma's Lankford inducing anti-vax behavior).

But neither government agencies nor Senators should deceive.

/3 My Oklahoma followers might recall my recent thread discussing how @SenatorLankford grossly misrepresented an Israeli study, saying natural immunity was 27X better, when in reality, its protection in a very limited situation study provided only ~1% additional protection.

/4 Oklahoma @SenatorLankford's assertion was inexcusably false, as he had the staff to ascertain its veracity.

The CDC's blurb, while true, is inexcusably confusing and deceptive.

Its study does not find vaccine immunity to be 5x better than natural immunity, but CBS thinks so.

/5 What does the CDC blurb say?

Among HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS with symptoms similar to COVID-19, unvaccinated patients were more likely to TEST positive than those RECENTLY vaccinated.

That is a far cry from 5x better actual protection, as I will expand further below.

/6 But before that deeper dive, let me reiterate acquiring COVID resistance from vaccines is statistically a FAR superior method to acquiring it from infection.

See this summer's slaughter in Florida where not only ~double expected were dying, but so many developed #LongCOVID

/7 Going back to the CDC study on which the @CDCgov propaganda blurb was based, it can found via this CDC media advisory, which similarly deceives like CBS. While the highlighted section is true, media is using the CDC deceptive headline (red).

cdc.gov/media/releases…

/4.1 Also from that CBS article (mischaracterization circled in red)

/8 Now the deeper dive into the CDC study. What does it actually examine?

medical encounters...across nine states during June–August 2021, beginning on the date the Delta variant accounted for >50% of sequenced isolates in each medical facility’s state.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…

/9 Which nine states are looked at in the CDC study?

New York
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Utah
California (Northern)
Oregon
Washington
Indiana
Colorado

A sample heavily tilted to the West, with some Midwest, and only New York in the Northeast.

Anything missing?

/10 Remember Florida? And anything near the Southeast?

The study period was June-August 2021.

All nine of the states in the CDC study are outside of a COVID hot zone.

*Hot zone was bookended by Florida and Oklahoma
**Someone may want to look into those Oklahoma irregularities

/11 Now, let's go back to the study findings, and limit them further.

1) If low COVID in region
2) those hospitalized w/ COVID-like illness
3) more likely to test + for COVID-19
4) if in prior 90-179 days
5) had been vaccinated
6) than infected (without having been vaccinated)

/12 The point being, this is a VERY limited finding, much like the VERY limited finding of a Israeli study touted by @SenatorLankford, which was specific to a Pfizer vaccine (developed for original strain) vs. infection with mostly Alpha variant.

/13 The Israel study, and data not expressly disclosed in the CDC study, point to one thing though:

BOTH vaccination and prior infection provide resistance to infection from COVID-19.

RESISTANCE not total immunity.

/14 Which is more "powerful"? Vaccination resistance, or "natural" resistance?

If you ask that, you are asking the wrong question, and falling into the dangerous trap that Floridians just fell into.

/15 In my view, many Floridians were forcefully vaccinated this summer through a variolation campaign by @GovRonDesantis.

In variolation, a subject is exposed to reduced amounts of a disease so that they recover and develop resistance to that disease.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variolati…

/16 In the Florida variolation campaign:

1) Viral load was not reduced, e.g., by masking. Mask mandates were banned in May.

2) Floridians deceived by data reporting change which showed a few hundred were dying per week, instead of a few thousand.
(more)
thehill.com/homenews/state…

/17 Florida (botched) Summer 2021 variolation campaign cont.:

3) The prevalent COVID-19 strain at time of forced variolation in Florida was the Delta strain, a strain which was much more contagious and perhaps more deadly than the original strain.

cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…

/18 Florida (botched) Summer 2021 variolation campaign cont.

4) The most "forced" phase of the variolation campaign began in early August, when largest pool of unvaccinated individuals, young children, were forced to attend school without a mask mandate.

flgov.com/2021/07/30/gov…

/19 Florida (botched) Summer 2021 variolation campaign cont.

5) Cases spiked shortly after school start dates.

6) Mitigations went up, mask usage greatly increased into late August, arresting the spike, but forced variolation still extensive.

And variolation had a steep cost.

/20 How steep was the price for forced "natural immunity" in Florida?

On the basis of excess deaths per diagnosed case, a mortality rate of ~2-3%, or ~500 excess deaths per day for around ~21000 cases/day.

For a period of over a month.

/21 So, at least ~21000 Floridians received some natural immunity each day for over a month in August/September.

Of that,

Over ~20,500/day received temporary resistance to COVID

And about ~500/day received permanent resistance to COVID.

Because you can't get COVID if dead.

/22 To conclude, I have discussed 3 studies:

1) An Israeli study showing "natural immunity" 1% better than vaccinated immunity in a limited situation.

2) The CDC study showing the opposite, in a limited situation.

3) The Florida "study" showing the cost of "natural immunity."

/23 My questions to @CDCgov & media:

Why are you getting into the weeds about the type of immunity, when bigger issue is cost of getting a version of immunity?

Who cares if one protects from infection/hospitalization by ~1% more, when cost of infection IN LIVES is way too high?

/24 Finally, we have barely broached the subject of #LongCOVID.

While long-lasting vaccine side effects appear rare, long-lasting side effects of COVID are not.

Should this drive the discussion as well?

It should.

But isn't, because politicians & @CDCgov have lost their way.

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