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Robert Colvile Profile picture
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30 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I don’t want to say kids have it easy these days, but they let you take out 20 books at the local library. 20! I spent hours of my childhood agonising over which to spend my five precious blue tickets on.
I think it says pretty much everything about me as a child that my starting to go into the local town, and then into Oxford, was driven largely by an overwhelming desire to access bigger library collections.
Wrote about my pash for the village library and its Asterix collection back when the cuts started telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/…

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More from @rcolvile

Robert Colvile Profile picture
31 Oct
It’s tempting to analyse the Budget as a one-off. But as I argue in my column today, last week was part of an inexorable process - the transformation of Britain into an elderly care system with a state attached. (1/) thetimes.co.uk/article/the-bu…
Part of the story here is obviously about Covid. Like all the rest of us, the state put on weight during the pandemic - and like all the rest of us, it’s finding it hard to lose.
A big part of the jump in spending in the new figures is the Treasury admitting that the pandemic is not a meteor but an asteroid. Under the original plan, departmental spending was meant to drop back to pre-pandemic levels. But (Adam Curtis voice) that was always a fantasy.
Read 17 tweets
Robert Colvile Profile picture
28 Oct
The @CPSThinkTank policy team have done a full briefing on the Budget and what it means. The key takeaway? We're entering the age of the trillion-pound state. cps.org.uk/research/budge…
As this chart shows, the Treasury's original plan for spending to fall back to pre-pandemic levels is dead. Instead, Covid (like WW1/2) will result in a step-change not just in debt but spending - with a smaller economy to support it, and hence higher taxes.
By 2025/6, total departmental spending (admittedly in nominal rather than real terms) will be higher than during the pandemic - breaching the £1 trn barrier for the first time. And once you throw in capital spending, we're already there.
Read 4 tweets
Robert Colvile Profile picture
27 Oct
Quick thread shamelessly plagiarising/summarising the @OBR_UK's presentation just now (because v interesting). First, GDP forecasts better but still extremely painful.
This is the key slide for me, on which so much else rests - inflation spike expected to subside to a nice neat 2%. Business leaders I've spoken to are sceptical to say the least...
On tax, Sunak is clearly funding the extra spending from his tax rises - but keeping much of the cash back to cut borrowing/as a buffer against instability
Read 8 tweets
Robert Colvile Profile picture
24 Oct
In my column today I discuss a big problem with Whitehall's architecture, which is an increasing topic of concern - that there's no department which has business/innovation as its core focus thetimes.co.uk/article/tax-or… ImageImage
The situation with BEIS is particularly egregious. @KwasiKwarteng is trying to change this, but this is literally all the stuff from its 2019-20 annual report under 'making the UK the best place to grow a business' (which is meant to be one of its core strategic aims). ImageImageImage
Now obviously there's been a pandemic, and the energy side of the brief has become rather important. There's also a lot happening on improving regulation. But business/growth need the same kind of push from the top that levelling up or Net Zero get, throughout the Civil Service.
Read 5 tweets
Robert Colvile Profile picture
22 Oct
.@telegraph leads its business pages with @CPSThinkTank / @TaxFoundation's alarming new findings - the tax rises due by 2023 will see us drop from being 11th of 37 OECD nations in terms of business taxes to 30th telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/…
End of the superdeduction, rising corporation taxes and new health and care levy see us go from 22nd to 30th overall. In the bottom group for business taxes, personal taxes, property taxes. Our business rates regime already worse than everyone except Iceland.
NB This is not just about headline tax rates. This is based on @TaxFoundation's expert modelling of what kind of tax regime is easiest to navigate and best at producing growth. So pretty alarming stuff and should be a big big 🚩🚩🚩 for govt.
Read 6 tweets
Robert Colvile Profile picture
14 Oct
Much as I hate to disagree with @FraserNelson et al, I think young people not being able to afford their own homes is a teensy weensy bit more of a factor spectator.co.uk/article/baby-d…
See eg this US research which shows a pretty clear correlation between house prices and fertility rates zillow.com/research/birth…
People like to wait to have kids until they have a home of their own. If they can't get a home of their own, they delay becoming parents - sometimes permanently.
Read 4 tweets

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