I was thinking the whole #Pendlerpauschale debate is such a great illustration of lock-in.

You incentivize carbon-intensive lifestyles for years, so that people move further away from jobs than they would otherwise have done.

So eventually you want to stop that but...
...that is perceived as a "declaration of war" on certain lifestyles that people have little leeway to change over the short term.

And the idea that the State will pay half of your fuel costs has become common sense, people feel entitled to it.
...and this regardless of whether the current situation is socially 'fair' (it's not ⬇️) or whether it even makes sense from an economics perspective (economists are divided but many think it doesn't). Those arguments won't cut much ice I'm afraid.
So I guess the lesson easy: avoid at all costs introducing those incentives to carbon-intensive lifestyles. Once society adapts around them, it will be nearly impossible to roll them back.

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More from @giulio_mattioli

2 Nov
This tweet by a finance economist on climate policy & transport fuel price increases has been getting a lot of attention on German Twitter.

I am doing a THREAD about it because it's got some truth in it, but it's also misleading in several respects Image
First of all, how do people respond to fuel price increases? Do they keep driving just as before, and cut expenses elsewhere?

Energy & transport economists have concept for it: the price elasticity of fuel demand.

It ranges from 0 (no fuel demand reduction) to (-)1
Höfgen's tweet implies that the price elasticity of fuel demand is 0. Empirical research, however, comes to different conclusions. This study for Germany estimates it at 0.45
iaee.org/en/publication…
Read 12 tweets
20 Aug
New book chapter out at sciencedirect.com/science/articl… - pretty happy with this one.

It talks about how Europe is actually pretty car dependent, how that explains a lot of inequalities in transport, and how some use those as excuses to preserve the (car-dependent) status quo

THREAD
There's a lot of American (or Australian) literature presenting Europe as a car-free paradise, but that's just because they're *so* car dependent, and Europe less than them.

But actually in most of Europe, it's not that easy to get by without a car.
The evidence shows that:

▶️ most travel in Europe is by car
▶️ large accessibility advantage from having a car in most places
▶️ most people in most countries see cars as a "necessity no one should do without"

At the same time, quite a lot of Europeans don't have one
Read 24 tweets
19 Aug
You could take *any* of the sectors in this chart, and argue that climate mitigation there is an irrelevant distraction, because the large majority of emissions come from elsewhere.

A lot of people actually do just that.
We call this rhetorical strategy "whataboutism", and it's often applied to countries, when people say "we're just 1% of emissions!" and "what about China!?"

But it's just as often applied to *sectors* and specific measures.

(illustration by @leolinne leolinne.com/?portfolio=dis…) Image
For a longer discussion of whataboutism and other discourses of climate delay see thread ⬇️ and open-access academic paper at doi.org/10.1017/sus.20…
Read 4 tweets
10 Aug
If you know Germany you know that it's pretty common, almost 'common sense', to claim that Germany is doing better than other countries re: climate & environment.

Journalist here calls it an "undisputed climate leader"

But how much truth there is to it?

THREAD with figures
I use figures from EEA for greenhouse gas emissions per capita in various sectors for 2019

I compare DE with other large EU countries + UK, as well as the EU+UK average

I use per capita figures because DE is larger than other countries
eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/…
I use data for 2019, and not relative reduction data because if:

- your emissions were very high
- you have reduced them more than others (in relative terms)
- but they're still higher than others in absolute terms

to me you're not a *leader*, you're just converging
Read 14 tweets
10 Aug
Me yesterday: "we won't hear discourses of climate delay today as #IPCCReport2021 is released, but beware, from tomorrow on...."

Journalists: managing to fit 2 discourses of climate delay in a single short interview question
Specifically, the discourses here are no. 5 "All talk, little action" (AKA targetism), drawing attention (often presumed) achievements relative to other countries (rather than relative to the goal) and to future targets (rather than concrete achievements)
...and no. 3 "the free rider excuse", hinting that other countries are not willing to do their bit (so why should we try *even harder*)?
Read 6 tweets
10 Aug
I am not sure what will happen first:

- the German coal exit (2038)

- or the day when German journalists will stop saying "we're *undisputed* climate *leaders*, but what can we do, we can't do everything *alone*!" (like here ⬇️)

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️
"We've committed to stop bragging about our presumed superiority on environmental matters by 2050"
Anyway I'm sure that day will become before the phaseout of combustion engine vehicle sales because... the German government is adamantly refusing to set a date for that
Read 4 tweets

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