...and this regardless of whether the current situation is socially 'fair' (it's not ⬇️) or whether it even makes sense from an economics perspective (economists are divided but many think it doesn't). Those arguments won't cut much ice I'm afraid.
So I guess the lesson easy: avoid at all costs introducing those incentives to carbon-intensive lifestyles. Once society adapts around them, it will be nearly impossible to roll them back.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
This tweet by a finance economist on climate policy & transport fuel price increases has been getting a lot of attention on German Twitter.
I am doing a THREAD about it because it's got some truth in it, but it's also misleading in several respects
First of all, how do people respond to fuel price increases? Do they keep driving just as before, and cut expenses elsewhere?
Energy & transport economists have concept for it: the price elasticity of fuel demand.
It ranges from 0 (no fuel demand reduction) to (-)1
Höfgen's tweet implies that the price elasticity of fuel demand is 0. Empirical research, however, comes to different conclusions. This study for Germany estimates it at 0.45 iaee.org/en/publication…
It talks about how Europe is actually pretty car dependent, how that explains a lot of inequalities in transport, and how some use those as excuses to preserve the (car-dependent) status quo
THREAD
There's a lot of American (or Australian) literature presenting Europe as a car-free paradise, but that's just because they're *so* car dependent, and Europe less than them.
But actually in most of Europe, it's not that easy to get by without a car.
The evidence shows that:
▶️ most travel in Europe is by car
▶️ large accessibility advantage from having a car in most places
▶️ most people in most countries see cars as a "necessity no one should do without"
At the same time, quite a lot of Europeans don't have one
You could take *any* of the sectors in this chart, and argue that climate mitigation there is an irrelevant distraction, because the large majority of emissions come from elsewhere.
We call this rhetorical strategy "whataboutism", and it's often applied to countries, when people say "we're just 1% of emissions!" and "what about China!?"
But it's just as often applied to *sectors* and specific measures.
If you know Germany you know that it's pretty common, almost 'common sense', to claim that Germany is doing better than other countries re: climate & environment.
Journalist here calls it an "undisputed climate leader"
Specifically, the discourses here are no. 5 "All talk, little action" (AKA targetism), drawing attention (often presumed) achievements relative to other countries (rather than relative to the goal) and to future targets (rather than concrete achievements)
...and no. 3 "the free rider excuse", hinting that other countries are not willing to do their bit (so why should we try *even harder*)?
- or the day when German journalists will stop saying "we're *undisputed* climate *leaders*, but what can we do, we can't do everything *alone*!" (like here ⬇️)
"We've committed to stop bragging about our presumed superiority on environmental matters by 2050"
Anyway I'm sure that day will become before the phaseout of combustion engine vehicle sales because... the German government is adamantly refusing to set a date for that