On the day before the race, the #VAGov forecast from @Thorongil16 and me remains Lean Democratic, with a D+3.5 margin forecasted and a 67% win probability. An interactive map with county margins is over at striderforecasts.com.
Both have a chance, but I'd rather be McAuliffe.
Both have a chance, but I'd rather be McAuliffe.
Youngkin appears to have momentum, and this was a key reason cited by @JMilesColeman and @kkondik in their Lean R call. It's a respectable one you can make a good argument for. I'd disagree primarily for a few reasons...
(1) the overall crosstab splits don't show as many danger signs for Democrats as the toplines do
(2) the polling average has been flooded by a host of pro-GOP firms as of late
(3) there *appears* to be significant herding and nonresponse impacting the results too
(2) the polling average has been flooded by a host of pro-GOP firms as of late
(3) there *appears* to be significant herding and nonresponse impacting the results too
(4) I do not believe the early vote can credibly be cast as "awful for Democrats" especially in a state without an EV tradition where an equivalent baseline is tough to gauge -- 2016/17 isn't a great comparison point because the rules were different, and COVID was bigger in 2020.
(5) I think the concept of momentum is a bit overrated in a race, and a lot of votes have already been banked. Furthermore, you can credibly argue the flip side as well -- that the Fox +8 poll that showed momentum would spur lagging Ds to vote. Hard to tell which theory is right.
the nice thing is that we'll probably know what's going on and who's right within the next 36 hours. until then, let's see. I'd avoid writing McAuliffe/Youngkin electoral obituaries until *after* the election, though...unlike some of what I've seen on here as of late.
We appear to be going against the grain here, as conventional wisdom appears to favor Youngkin. And there's always a chance we called it wrong.
But we're comfortable with the methodology and the model. If we're wrong, so be it, but at least we've been open about what we're doing
But we're comfortable with the methodology and the model. If we're wrong, so be it, but at least we've been open about what we're doing
to be clear, the crystal ball folks are not saying this at all. this is something that other accounts have been saying. i am simply trying to point out that you cannot doompost over early vote statistics by county the way people seem to be doing.
https://twitter.com/avvwrites/status/1455265102089756673?s=20
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