Thread by @lxeagle17

🚨FINAL #VAGov FORECAST🚨

At the end of a long campaign, here's where the model made by me and @Thorongil16 stands. The race is rated as Lean Democratic, with a forecasted margin of D+3.6 and a win probability of 67%. An interactive map is over at striderforecasts.com.

The consensus on this race is all over the place, and we've seen polls in the last week ranging from D+3 to R+8. Absolutely nobody can agree on what an electorate looks like or who's voting. What we all can agree on is that Democrats have a large early vote (EV) lead...

But even then, nobody knows exactly how big, and the margin here matters. We know via L2 that the EV electorate is roughly 2:1 Biden, but the crossover vote matters here. If it knocks EV down to D+19, Youngkin's probably favored. D+27 and it's likely McAuliffe's race to lose.

Nobody knows what the composition of election day voting will look like either. Trump won election day by over 20 points in 2020. That probably will not happen here, but Youngkin will win it. By how much? If he wins it by 18 or so, it's his race. By < 14 and it's much tougher.

Democrats will probably do a lot better on election day than they did in 2020, simply because a pandemic isn't directly impacting their turnout levels to that degree any longer. The question is by how much. And on that, we really don't know. A lot will hinge on Black turnout

Youngkin needs 3 things to break for him:
1) Surging rural white turnout (which has badly lagged again in EV)
2) Cratering Black turnout (something which also lagged in EV)
3) Strong crossover support with educated white voters.

If he gets all 3, he'd win by a point or two IMO.

All that is to say that this is truly anyone's race. 67% is good odds for Democrats, but as @Thorongil16 said, you wouldn't play roulette with two bullets in the revolver and think you're coming out of it safe. There's a very good chance Youngkin is the next Virginia governor.

We think McAuliffe is favored, but it's close. The Economist has a forecast of D+2. Cook and InsideElections think it's a tossup, CNalysis says it's tilt R, and Sabato's Crystal Ball has a lean R rating. This race is very hard to forecast, and estimates are very varied!

Whatever happens, it's been a pleasure modeling this race and discussing it with y'all. We didn't go into it trying to create a model that would favor a party or a side; this is where the data led us. We'll see who's right soon. All I ask is to please be nice. This stuff is hard!