Finally: “In a highly anticipated report, the Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and other regulators urged lawmakers to let them police stablecoin issuers like banks with robust capital requirements and constant supervision” Bloomberg: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 1/
This development reflects the theory and historical experience with bank’s regulation.What specifically defines a bank is the deposit contract that promises to redeem the same amount of money at par.The banks hold assets or credits on the other side of their balance-sheet 2/
Sometimes, those assets go sour and the bank may lose the capacity to honour its deposit liabilities and provide the money due to depositors. In the times of free banking, this happened often and banks would go bankrupt. This changed in the turn to the XXth century 3/
Countries introduced schemes of deposits insurance and minimum capital requirements to the banks. High capital, such at it existed at the time of the 1929 crisis, didn’t prevent the banks to go down because of assets going bad and lack of liquidity 4/
As a consequence, bank supervision was introduced to permanently monitor the quality of banks assets and banks’ liquidity. Even this, of course, does not guarantee absence of bankruptcies in crisis, but the main point of bank regulation is to protect depositor’s money.5/
Stablecoins are crypto-tokens linked to an official currency, mainly the dollar, by keeping the money they collect from clients when they buy them, applied in cash or liquid short-term paper denominated in the linking currency. So, they promise redemption at par in dollars. 6/
Because of the link with an official currency, the value of stablecoins is not volatile as it happens to bitcoin or other similar crypto-assets. These do not have any such link and do not make promises about the value at the time of exchange back to official currencies 7/
The balances hold in stable crypto currencies, are in fact deposits with the same obligations of return the principal at par in the official currency, like banks. Without regulation, no one verifies if they do keep the assets and sufficient liquidity. So, accidents can happen 8/
Recently, e.g., Bloomberg reported that no one can find where are the assets behind Tether, one of the more popular “stablecoins”. Holdings of Tether amounted to 69 billion USD! bloomberg.com/news/features/… 9/
So, institutions that offer a deposit contract to their clients, do exactly what really defines a bank. A bank is not defined because it gives credit to clients. Fintechs that just do credit, like peer-to-peer lending or crowd-funding, cannot, and are not, compared to banks 10/
Some analysts defend that stablecoins are similar to money market funds (MMFs) and should be regulated as such, but I don’t think so. Old style MMFs, that guaranteed the value of their units at par, were in fact, as many have said, “banks without capital”. 11/
After some bailouts, the US new legislation transformed most MMFs into “variable value units” which pass to their clients the risk of losing money from lower valuations. These no longer get money from clients as something akin to a deposit. (There are other MMFs types) 12/
The US Treasury Report,lists the reasons why regulation like banks is necessary:“To address risks to..users and guard against stablecoin runs…concerns about payment system risk…concerns about systemic risk and concentration of economic power” home.treasury.gov/system/files/1… 13/
Systemic risk may come from bank disintermediation,i.e., deposit flight from banks.Banks are heavily regulated and that would be unfair competition by unregulated institutions doing the same. Banks are, btw, the only institution that offer maturity transformation 14/
Maturity transformation banks do, consists in offering short-term deposits and doing longer term loans. This function is crucial because most people want to maintain liquid deposits they can use immediately and the economy needs longer term credits for businesses or mortgages 15/
Stablecoins should be regulated as banks, but possibly in a lighter way, as they do not do much maturity transformation or other things that banks do. Regulators will face fierce opposition from the enthusiastic tech people who think that technology annuls financial risks 16/
There is much else to say about banks, MMFs and their various types, stablecoins and their variants, as well as about what they do, all the risks they incur into or that they can provoke. This thread only covers some of the basics on the regulators case. Read the Report 17/17
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The ECB just published a relevant working paper about which inflation expectations indicators are the best to help forecast inflation ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps…
J, Rudd, in a FED WP asked “Why Do…Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation?”, federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/f… 1/18
Rudd points that the role of inflation expectations as a cause of inflation has been accepted as “an established truth” since Phelps (1967) & Friedman (1968) introduced them with “a priori assumptions”. Since then, there was hardly a debate on why that causality should work 2/
Expectations became almost everything. From the classic 2003 book by Woodford “Interest and Prices”: “..successful monetary policy is not so much a matter of effective control of..interest rates as it is of shaping market expectations..” “…very little else matters” 3/
Two interesting webinars on public debt by @ojblanchard1 & @B_Eichengreen . At the Paris school of Economics @ojblanchard1 presented a compressed and updated his AEA 2019 paper. He also announced an imminent new book with all the nuts & bolts of the deficits and debt issues. 1/
He thinks that r<g will dominate for 10 years or more. Market-based expectations so far agree with him. He defends regular stochastic DSAs instead of any quantitative rule for fiscal policy, conceding that if there must be one he favours a rule for the primary balance (s) /2n
In a regime of low r,he portrays this choice: continue with fairly high deficits and increase r & r*; or reduce deficits and keep very low r & r*. It is, I think, a pertinent choice with low r and in an obvious non-Ricardian world. He favours the first option for several years 3/
See a very good slide presentation of the model at from 7m to 35m. 2/4
The model was originally developed for Austria (after years of work) but then also calibrated for the Euro Area. See the out-of-sample forecasting performance up to 3 years, compared with a VAR. Notice the model improved forecast for longer periods and also for the EA 3/4
Bitcoin tumbled again. Finally, American authorities seem to be awakening for the real problems with bitcoin and other crypto-assets. “The US Treasury announced on Thursday that any crypto transfers worth more than $10,000 must be reported” to the tax administration 1/11
Obviously, that works only for honest citizens and firms. Importantly, the Treasury text recognises that “Cryptocurrency already poses a significant detection problem by facilitating illegal activity “ The problem is the absolute anonymity they ensure 2/.
There are various types of blockchain technology, open decentralised or permissioned ones. Crypto assets use the forme, and no one can access the true identity of entities transacting in the network using a number and a password only they know. A paradise for criminals.3/
CBs must keep their nerve with no change in their stance or views on the economy. Despite all warnings about temporary supply glitches & one-off effects on inflation, media and markets are in a frenzy about inflation data for the US April inflation, 4.2% yoy and 3% for core.1/
The EA numbers are much lower, 1.6% and 0.8%. I expected 2% for the EA and more than 3% for the US (markets were expecting 3.6%). The oil price went negative for a few days in March 2020 and was still around $21 in April 2020, implying a huge base effect for March/April 2021.2/
Markets reacted sharply. In 2 days, the US 10Y yield went up from 1.6 to 1.69 now. In the EA the average increase is now also 9 b.p. Stocks are going down (especially tech in the US). VIX, the “ fear index” had a spike but still fat from several previous peaks. 3/
A day of victory for crypto-assets and for bitcoin in particular. It is also a day that establishes these blockchain-based crypto tokens as a Wall-Street adopted asset class in competition with other types of investment. They are not currencies. 1/
A new Exchange (Coinbase), specialized in crypto-assets was launched and traded in NASDAQ. It attained an initial value of ±100 billion dollars of capitalization. Much higher than the company that owns the NY Stock Exchange and not much below Blackrock (± 120 bn) or GE !! 2/
Bitcoin itself reached 64000 dollars per coin before dropping a bit. As I tweeted some time ago, bitcoin cannot be a full-fledged currency because it cannot be a stable unit of account or an usual means of exchange because the higher and higher valuations undermine that. 3/