A day of victory for crypto-assets and for bitcoin in particular. It is also a day that establishes these blockchain-based crypto tokens as a Wall-Street adopted asset class in competition with other types of investment. They are not currencies. 1/
A new Exchange (Coinbase), specialized in crypto-assets was launched and traded in NASDAQ. It attained an initial value of ±100 billion dollars of capitalization. Much higher than the company that owns the NY Stock Exchange and not much below Blackrock (± 120 bn) or GE !! 2/
Bitcoin itself reached 64000 dollars per coin before dropping a bit. As I tweeted some time ago, bitcoin cannot be a full-fledged currency because it cannot be a stable unit of account or an usual means of exchange because the higher and higher valuations undermine that. 3/
To buy a car in September in the US priced at 100.000 USD we would have to spend 10 coins. However, if we would have waited until January, with 10 bitcoins we could have bought 4 cars and in mid-March 6 cars. This implies a big risk of spending bitcoins in current transactions.
There is now a sort of American fever: the inflow of money into stocks in the past 5 months exceeds the amount in the past 12 years! An NFT (a non-fungible token in a blockchain)was bought for $68million but was already online and can be reproduced. NFTs may be exchange traded
Despite appearances this is not the roaring twenties of yore, which could be seen as a bad omen. Today, the earnings of the big US banks surpassed by far all market expectations The strength and growth of the US economy is now for real. Can it cover all those huge valuations? 6/6
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Bloomberg published an interesting article bloomberg.com/news/features/… about the Brexit effects on financial instruments trading in Europe.See this chart on the trading of stocks displacement from London to continental cities 1/
Swap trading has also moved to the EU, inverting previous positions 2/
Regarding derivatives clearing, the EU Commission fixed up toJune 2022 the “temporary legal permit Brussels ..to give EU banks access to UK clearing houses” Then comes the unavoidable displacement process away from a third country without an agreement about services trade. 3/3
There is a growing chorus in “market literature” about the alleged coming back of the inflation spectre. Inflation is increasing this year because of oil and pent-up demand one-off effects. Still, the hawks are invoking all possible inflation causes to justify their warnings.1/
However, all official institutions, national and international, are not forecasting high inflation. Taking into account this year`s one-off shocks, the FED projects inflation this year and next to be only 2.4% and 2%, and the ECB forecasts the pow levels of 1.5% and 1.2% 2/
Disregarding those predictions, hawks mention all possible drivers to justify their inflation scare. From fiscal deficits, regardless of private demand and economic slack, to attempting to resurrect zombie monetarism of yore based on recent temporary money increases. 3/
A potential problem is looming, and the media are pursuing a new story that builds on the following chain of reasoning: 1) higher inflation is coming;2) if CBs increase interest rates debts will explode and recession may ensue; 3) CBs are caught in an impossible dilemma 1/12
It´s perhaps too complex for some tweets, but.. Registered inflation this year is bound to be higher than present forecasts, resulting from one-off price spikes and base effects That will not start a sustained high inflation process, but temporary higher inflation is possible 2/
For example, Euro Area inflation increased suddenly from several months at -0.3% to +0.9% in Jan. This jump resulted mostly from several base effects, especially the change to German VAT. Inflation expectations increasing but higher in the US than in the EA 3/
Not surprisingly, my previous tweets on bitcoin were misinterpreted by many. I didn´t predict the demise of bitcoin. I just pointed out that bitcoin changed its nature. From an initial aim of being a currency, it changed into an accepted asset for investment 1/9
As an asset, the future of bitcoin seems assured if it doesn´t become excessively volatile. Last year, various financial institutions, preceding Tesla, started to invest a very small part of their portfolios in bitcoins. As I said, the allocators of wealth stepped-in. That..2/
That reinforced the fact that bitcoin could not be a general currency for regular transactions by regular people. To buy one bitcoin it costs now (it´s going down a bit this morning) ≈ 45900 dollars or ≈ 37900 euros, in the currencies that everyone uses. So,… 3/
Tesla just announced that it had bought 1.5 billion dollars of bitcoin and could in the future sell cars in bitcoins. Since this morning both Bitcoin and Tesla are going up in the market. Maybe there is afterall something in the saying that“Bitcoin is Tesla without the cars”1/ 20
Musk is seen as a genius, a true Midas, by many investors and millennials. For them he can never go wrong. He became recently the richest man in the world dur to Tesla stock valuation (+353% yoy). He moves markets and today´s announcement is “kind of legitimise “ bitcoin 2/
Tesla shares attained $870 which represents a Price/ Earnings ratio of 1.747 (!) on the basis of last year´s profits. Apple is at 37 and the S&P firms average is 23 (against a historical average ≈16). Future profits would have to increase a lot to justify a more normal ratio 3/
Replying @ndrea_terzi The ECB cannot do yield curve control the Japanese way because it cannot hint at 19 10Y yields levels as objectives. To use the new EU Commission debt yields is not effective as maturities are longer, the amount is small (much below € 750bn) ..and 1/
..because it isn't (and cannot become) an equal benchmark to all countries' debt and the ECB has said to be committed to avoid fragmentation. The same applies to the use of OIS rates (that a few have advocated) besides the point that 10Y maturities are too thin a market. 2/
The only way the ECB could apply a sort of yield curve control approximately like Japan would be to concentrate purchases of countries' bonds on e.g. 10 years maturities without fixing any target for the 19 yields, hoping to attain some desired levels by calibrating well the ../3