Thread by @dhmontgomery

Here’s what I’m looking for when results start coming in tonight, for the RCV mayor’s race. Let me know why I’m dead wrong!

1) Can Frey top 50% in round 1? If he does, it’s over.
2) Is Frey below 40%? If so, really tough path for him.
3) In between, things get interesting…

The general dynamic of the race is Frey vs. the field. Most voters either support the mayor, or oppose him. RCV means anti-Frey voters can scatter their first-choice votes and still come home.

Anti-Frey activists are pushing the “Don’t rank Frey” campaign to minimize the number of voters Frey picks up in later rounds. But plenty of voters probably WILL rank Frey 2nd or 3rd! Not a lot, but certainly not nothing. If Frey’s at 47%+ in the first round, I think he wins easy

Other voters might only rank 1 or two candidates, which means their votes are exhausted. And in Minneapolis’ RCV, you only need 50%+1 of *non-exhausted votes*.

The interesting scenario is if Frey’s in the low 40s for 1st-choice balloting. That’s when things could go either way. If he gets more 2nd choice votes than people expect, or lots of anti-Frey voters exhaust their ballots, he can win. If the anti-Frey vote consolidates, he loses.

The conventional wisdom is that the top 2 will come down to Frey and Nezhad.

If this is true — who knows! — and Knuth is the 3rd-ranked candidate, how her voters break may decide things.

Knuth and Nezhad (and perhaps Awed) have their own little mini-race going on to be favored anti-Frey candidate. Whichever maxes out first-choice votes is likely to be that person, unless voters for minor candidates overwhelmingly consolidate behind one of the major candidates.

2017 was a *much* more wide-open race, though. Lots more fluidity between candidates and opportunities for votes to consolidate in later rounds.

2021 is more of a “Frey vs. the field” dynamic.

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