Alright, let’s try this again, but with correct math.
I’d say Frey might be in trouble if the share of voters ranking in 2nd & 3rd was circa 1-3%. As it is, he’s got a whole lot of votes that will likely come his way as RCV is calculated and candidates eliminated tomorrow.
I’d say Frey might be in trouble if the share of voters ranking in 2nd & 3rd was circa 1-3%. As it is, he’s got a whole lot of votes that will likely come his way as RCV is calculated and candidates eliminated tomorrow.
Frey’s got a whole lot of paths to get to 50%+1 as RCV is calculated. Is it mathematically guaranteed with what we know now? No. There are ways that both Nezhad & Knuth could theoretically win. But I think they’re unlikely.
As I think about it more closely, these old charts weren’t *wrong*. What they were showing is % of *total ballots cast*. My new charts are showing percent of ballots *in each round*. Exhausted ballots change the denominators!
https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/1455746900569821186
There were 143,645 ballots with a first choice in the Minneapolis mayoral race.
There were 108,730 with a 2nd choice (-35K).
There were 71,683 with a 3rd choice (-37K).
There were 108,730 with a 2nd choice (-35K).
There were 71,683 with a 3rd choice (-37K).
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