One thing that is certain to be true: the dominant choice of Minneapolis voters today is going to be “did not vote,” not any of the candidates/choices on the ballot. Since the 70s, Minneapolis has never had a municipal race where more than 50% of registered voters turned out. 
And even if we do set a modern record and top 50% turnout, more registered voters will have stayed home than will vote for any of the candidates/choices.
Here’s a turnout history for Minneapolis mayoral elections. Note that 1985, 1989, 2005 and 2009 featured incumbent mayors winning reelection en route to long tenures. (Winning handily, in @R_T_Rybak’s cases; I can’t find stats on Donald Fraser’s 1980s wins to say for sure.)
This is turnout by precinct in the 2017 mayoral election.
The R^2 between the percent of a precinct’s voted who ranked Frey anywhere in 2017 and the voter turnout was 0.19.
The R^2 between the percent of a precinct’s voted who ranked Frey anywhere in 2017 and the voter turnout was 0.19.
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