WSJ: After meeting US envoy Jeff Feltman Oct. 24, Sudan Gen. al-Burhan “boarded a jet to Egypt for secret talks to ensure his plot would have regional support.” Sisi reassured him. Upon his return to Khartoum, Burhan arrested dozens of officials, inc. PM wsj.com/articles/milit…
Sudan’s military coup is the 4th in Africa this year. “Military strongmen in Guinea, Chad & Mali have in recent months taken power from weakened governments that were vulnerable to foreign interference and plagued by poor governance, stuttering economies, and insecurity”
Attempted “military coups have been foiled this year in Madagascar, Central African Republic and Niger.”
“In Africa, this year has seen a quadrupling of coups after just one putsch in 2020—again in Mali—and an average of just two a year over the past decade. The number is the highest since 1980… “
👉🏼 “Diplomats and analysts say that a key reason for the surge in coups is that the willingness of a number of international powers to deal with authoritarian regimes has lowered the potential cost of a regime change.”
China, Russia—and it seems, the Gulf states—support the military coups. The US and Europe oppose.
“Egypt has been seeking international support for its dispute with Ethiopia” over a giant dam. “Just before the coup, Egypt’s intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, traveled to Khartoum to meet Gen. Burhan—but shunned PM Hamdok.”
The Egyptians were unhappy with Sudan PM Hamdok’s “public openness to the Ethiopian dam…’Hamdok has to go,’ Mr. Kamel told Gen. Burhan, one Sudan government adviser said.”
“In weekend anticoup protests that Secretary of State Antony Blinken said numbered in the millions, demonstrators decried President Sisi as the hidden hand behind the coup.

‘Abdel Fatta Burhan and Sisi—one and the same,’ they chanted.”
Beyond Russia and China. Not sure the United States has fully grappled with so many of its Middle East partners being forces for spreading authoritarianism and anti democracy/military juntas, that those mostly authoritarian states see as better serving their interests.

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More from @lrozen

4 Nov
I think PR-1 in Danchenko indictment is Charles Dolan kglobal.com/team-member/ch… affiliated with Ketchum, which has done lobby work for gazprom etc. his bio fits with data points in description in doj doc ImageImage
A (unremarkable) May 2012 Ketchum FARA filing discloses pr work on behalf of the russia federation and for peskov, promoting lavrov oped, etc. lists a payment to dolan among others from that russia work efile.fara.gov/docs/5758-Supp… ImageImageImageImage
(genuinely hard to remember until skimming this how much better were relations btw Russia and US even in 2012, and how much worse they became just a few years later, over ukraine (2014->), then syria (2015->), then election interference (2016->)…
Read 6 tweets
2 Nov
US envoy Jeff Feltman, on Sudan call, characterized Sudanese generals he met with ahead of Oct. 25 coup to discuss their concerns with transition and possible mechanisms to address them as speaking to US officials in bad faith.
He commended members of Sudanese security forces who exercised restraint during demos over weekend, & observed Sudanese demonstrators by and large stayed away from military installations, reducing friction. Said US admires the courage of Sudanese people in demanding their voices
be heard and helping their country make strides to a new sudan. "To those freedom loving Sudanese, I say the world is watching." US will not accept the military sideline their hard-fought democratic transition, and we stand with the people of Sudan, Feltman said.
Read 5 tweets
1 Nov
“Politics was also at play. After months of the president threatening to fire FBI Director Christopher Wray, the agency’s senior leaders worried that any public statements by the director might be ‘asking for a desperate president to come after him,’” washingtonpost.com/politics/inter…
1 senior DHS official “was on the call with the fusion centers organized by Sena that prompted DC to begin preparing for a mass casualty event. The agency flew in hundreds of Border Patrol and other agents… But it did not issue a security bulletin… regarding possible violence”
“The Jan. 6 assignment went to the office’s most junior analyst, who quickly became spooked about what he saw. Almost daily, he brought Harvin disturbing new posts found online…
Read 18 tweets
30 Oct
🧵Biden, Johnson, Macron, Merkel long joint statement pushing for quick return of US & Iran to full compliance with JCPOA: The current situation underscores the importance of a negotiated solution that provides for the return of Iran & the US to full compliance with the JCPOA Image
“& provides the basis for continued diplomatic engagement to resolve remaining points of contention – both our concerns & Iran’s. In this spirit, we welcome Pres. Biden’s clearly demonstrated commitment to return the US to full compliance w/the JCPOA & to stay in full compliance Image
“so long as Iran does the same.

“We are convinced that it is possible to quickly reach and implement an understanding on return to full compliance and to ensure for the long term that Iran’s nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes.” whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/… ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
🧵Snr State Dept official, asked about role of Egypt, KSA & UAE on Sudan, said US envoy, State & WH have engaged reps of all those govts. implies there may not be consensus between US & those countries that release of PM Hamdok and his wife to virtual house arrest is not enough.
SSDO: important that the PM was released, but it is not sufficient.. So we continue to engage them on the fact that it's not enough that you would have PM Hamdok back home. …The Sudanese people are not going to stand by idly & watch the military basically obliterate
the civilian institutions of the state, or replace the state institutions with sort of Quisling-type appointments. Because these 3 countries…are very concerned with Sudan stability, & we simply do not see that a continuation of the type of military rule that Gen. Burhan
Read 8 tweets
27 Oct
thread suggesting the Sudan coup may be unraveling, and the general behind it has summoned UN envoy Volker Perthes cause he miscalculated. UN spox confirmed Perthes met with Burhan today
UN spox Stephane Dujarric said UN special envoy to Sudan Volker Perthes met in Sudan Wed. with Burhan…”Dujarric said Perthes reiterated the UN wants to ‘see a return to the transition process’ & demanded an immediate release of all arbitrarily detained."
voanews.com/a/sudanese-sec…
Read 7 tweets

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