Thread by @lrozen

“Politics was also at play. After months of the president threatening to fire FBI Director Christopher Wray, the agency’s senior leaders worried that any public statements by the director might be ‘asking for a desperate president to come after him,’” washingtonpost.com/politics/inter…

1 senior DHS official “was on the call with the fusion centers organized by Sena that prompted DC to begin preparing for a mass casualty event. The agency flew in hundreds of Border Patrol and other agents… But it did not issue a security bulletin… regarding possible violence”

“The Jan. 6 assignment went to the office’s most junior analyst, who quickly became spooked about what he saw. Almost daily, he brought Harvin disturbing new posts found online…

By “Dec. 30, the young analyst was ready to present a worst-case scenario: Someone could plant an improvised explosive device near the Capitol, he said. With law enforcement distracted, extremists might then band together & attack government buildings, maybe even the Capitol”

which is sort of what happened. except it was thousands who attacked the Capitol

“Milley was worried that once troops were activated & on the streets of the nation’s capital, it would be much easier for Trump to redirect them as he wished...
Ryan McCarthy, the Army sec., wasn’t sure he could rule out such a scenario, either, esp. after Trump fired Esper”

“On Jan. 1, an amateur historian of architecture...who maintains a website on tunnels, inc. those under the Capitol, filed a report on the FBI’s website about an unusual spike in hits to his site... inc. from” TheDonald win, AR15 com & MyMilitia com on Jan. 6

On Jan. 3, DOJ, DHS, FEMA leaders, as well as Trump nat sec advisor Robert O’Brien had conf call to go over security concerns for jan. 6. ...”O’Brien thought the biggest danger would be...antifa.”

Acting AG Rosen “was consumed with a separate but related crisis...Minutes before the call, Rosen learned that Trump intended to replace him with Jeffrey Clark, a mid-level dept attorney who’d made clear he would do Trump’s election bidding”

Capitol Police had been following the lead of the FBI, which did not aggressively pursue many such posts out of First Amendment concerns. But the flow of troubling warnings now felt like a deluge.

Cap Pol intel analysts predicted in internal report that Jan. 6 would be far more dangerous to the Capitol and its occupants than the pro-Trump rallies in November and December. “Congress itself is the target,” they concluded,...but on p 13 of 15 page report

On Jan. 4, FBI #2 (wrongly) assured Mark Warner, don’t worry, they had it under control.
Also that day, the National Park Service allowed the number of people under a permit filed for the rally at the Ellipse to balloon from 5,000 to 30,000.
meantime, Trump kept hyping event

it is hard not to think that there was a huge FBI failure. they downplayed the growing threats not only because it was a first amendment protected protest, but because it was by Trump supporters, and they did not want to get in another dust up with him

“There was so much material now bubbling up about Jan. 6 that bureau analysts running the FBI’s online portal where social media companies were reporting suspected criminal behavior had begun using a hashtag to track and organize incoming threats: #CERTUNREST2021.”

On 1/5, “the multibillion-dollar security apparatus built in the wake of 9/11 to protect the country’s most critical functions produced a single..final warning” but “it was not flagged to the leadership of law enforcement agencies.” Report’s handling suggested FBI not v concerned

2hrs into siege, “Trump still had not addressed the crisis on camera or instructed his supporters to go home when, at 4:05 pm, Biden appeared on TV…Senators from both parties watching from their secure room…applauded.” washingtonpost.com/politics/inter…

“It was like, wow, we have a leader who said what needed to be said,” Romney said. washingtonpost.com/politics/inter…

“Even as the Senate returned to order, the pressure on Pence did not let up. Eastman, the attorney advising Trump, emailed Jacob, Pence’s counsel, around 9 p.m. to try to convince the vice president to move to not certify the election results.”