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Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
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3 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Authoritarian politicians do not tolerate dissent from their ideology. Professors are independent sources of authority, outside their control.

Mao targeted us in his Cultural Revolution.

Orban is doing so in Turkey.

Vance uses the playbook's first chapter here.
economist.com/leaders/2021/0…
FL GOP will not tolerate dissent from its ideology. Bars professors from using their independent authority to offer public testimony.

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More from @aaronsojourner

Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
5 Nov
Happy #JobsDay.

Strong job gains in October: +531K.

+235K in upward revisions of the prior 2 months.
This leaves us 4.2 million below Feb 2020. Image
It leaves us 8.3 million jobs below the pre-pandemic trend. Image
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
12 Oct
Context for understanding rising quits.

Corporate profits are through the roof and have been rising extremely quickly.

Employers unwilling to share the value that their workers help create are getting push back & attrition as workers move towards employers who do.
Switchers are getting faster growth than stayers.

This measures wage growth trends within the same worker over time, reducing issues with changes in who is employed.
There's been some acceleration in wage growth, but nothing like the acceleration in profit growth.
Read 7 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
11 Oct
To return EPOP to its level of 2 years ago, we'd need 5.7 million Americans newly employed.

Over same time, number of Americans out of the labor force increased 4.7 million.

Among them, those who "want a job now"⬆️ 1.1 million and who do not ⬆️ 3.6 million.
What age groups account for the +1.1 million who are out of the labor force and want a job now?

Prime-age Americans (25-54) account for 61% of the increase, young adults for 24%, and Americans 55+ only for 14%.
What ages account for +3.6 million out of labor force & not wanting a job now?

Increase in the number of older Americans (55+) in this group accounts for 89% of its rise.

Number of young folks in the group actually ⬇️326K.

Early retirements? COVID concern? Grandkid care?
Read 8 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
26 Sep
Americans not working mainly because "I was caring for someone or sick myself with coronavirus symptoms" ⬆️ more than 2X from 2.0 million in late July to 4.7M in early Sept.

Offsetting this, “I was caring for children not in school or daycare” ⬇️ from 7.1 to 4.4M.
“I was laid off or furloughed due to coronavirus pandemic” had been ⬇️steadily but stopped doing so.

“I was concerned about getting or spreading the coronavirus” pretty stable.

Here are all the main reasons for not working with the counts for the wave ending 9/13.
It's not clear if changes reflect new people not employed or the same people with changing main reasons.

For people with multiple constraints, if one eases (kid care), another may become be reported as the "main reason."

Also, some change in survey design starting with 8/2.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
26 Aug
Cops have unique power to force others to spend time close to them -- to pull people over, to detain them, to force them into the same car or room.

Therefore, they have a special responsibility to minimize the risk they'll spread infection.
This applies to teachers too, and with special force for those teaching kids age 5-11, who are both legally compelled to be in school & legally barred from being vaccinated.
Same for corrections officers, judges, baliffs...
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
25 Aug
Coverage of the House passage of the reconciliation bill is terribly process oriented.

It's really hard to learn what's in bill & how it would affect Americans' lives.
nyti.ms/3zfieTv
If the newspapers are reluctant to make their own independent characterizations, at least quote some pols, some think tankers, some interest group representatives, some Americans in diners...
Truly, I want to know. What is this bill promising to do & how, with what chance of success? What the heck are these programs?!
congress.gov/committee-prin…
Read 4 tweets

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