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Darren 🙏

@ReformedTrader

30 Oct

1/ Does Living in California Make People Happy? A Focusing Illusion in Judgments of Life Satisfaction (Schkade, Kahneman)

"Self-reported overall life satisfaction was the same in both regions, though participants expected Californians to be happier."

web.mit.edu/curhan/www/doc…

2/ "When attention is drawn to the possibility of a change in any significant aspect of life, the perceived effect of this change on well-being is likely to be exaggerated.

"Paraplegics & lottery winners have many experiences that do not relate directly to their special status.

3/ "Once the situation in which they find themselves is no longer novel, people in these circumstances often (perhaps mostly) think of other things.

"College students were asked two questions: "How happy are you?" and "How many dates did you have last month?"

Read 14 tweets

Darren 🙏

@ReformedTrader

28 Oct

1/ Did I Miss the Value Turn? (Arnott, Kalesnik, Wu)

"Value stocks remain priced at very attractive valuations across most regional markets—discounts in the bottom half of the cheapest decile. We may wait decades for another opportunity of this scale."

researchaffiliates.com/publications/a…

2/ "Value posted the worst drawdown in its history over the years 2017–2020.

"Value’s pre-pandemic drawdown in developed markets was slightly shorter than in the U.S. but was even deeper at 19%. In emerging markets, value continued to work until late 2018."

3/ "From Jan 2007 to Sept 2020 in the U.S., relative valuation moved from the most expensive quartile to the cheapest percentile; this explains more than 100% of value’s underperformance.

"Net of this downward revaluation, value would have beat growth by a respectable margin."

Read 17 tweets

Darren 🙏

@ReformedTrader

25 Oct

1/ Fortune's Formula (William Poundstone)

"Even unlikely events must eventually come to pass. Therefore, anyone who accepts small risks of losing everything eventually _will_ lose everything. The compound return rate is acutely sensitive to fat tails."

amazon.com/Fortunes-Formu…

2/ "Looked at another way, a coin toss is physics. An event is random only when no one cares to predict it.

"Thorp discovered that he was able to guess approximately where the roulette ball would land: The wheel was slightly tilted. This made the ball favor the downhill side."

3/ "Money management is the tricky & all-important issue of how to extract the greatest profit from a favorable opportunity. You can be the world’s greatest poker player, but if you can’t manage your money, you’ll end up broke. Sadly, almost everyone goes broke in the long run."

Read 122 tweets

Darren 🙏

@ReformedTrader

23 Oct

Money gives you freedom, which can then be allocated toward one or more goals:
* not have a job any more
* simplify your business / align it with your values
* help others
* accept negative expected returns (big house, nice car)

(The fourth one may be more stuffy than it seems!)

https://twitter.com/ReformedTrader/status/1411112122751148036

https://twitter.com/ReformedTrader/status/1411112122751148036

https://twitter.com/ReformedTrader/status/1448828710908424195

https://twitter.com/ReformedTrader/status/1448828710908424195

Read 4 tweets

Darren 🙏

@ReformedTrader

21 Oct

1/ Who Gets In and Why: A Year Inside College Admissions (Selingo)

"Applying has become a quest for the 'right' schools at any cost, though others offer top-notch educations w/ high acceptance rates.

"Success is about how, not just where, you go." (p.5)

amazon.com/Who-Gets-Why-C…

2/ "College admissions is not about you; it’s about the college. It’s not about being “worthy” per se; it’s more about fitting into a college’s agenda, whatever that might be.

In a given year, that might mean more full payers, humanities majors, and students from the Dakotas.

3/ "Sometimes the goals are narrower: a pitcher for the baseball team, a goalie for the soccer team, or an oboist for the orchestra. Many colleges give special consideration to applicants w/ deep, lasting connections to the school (e.g., children of alumni & employees)." (p. 9)

Read 136 tweets

Darren 🙏

@ReformedTrader

19 Oct

1/ Investor Demand for Leverage: Evidence from Equity Closed-End Funds (Dam, Davies, Moon)

"We document a strong negative relation between equity CEF fund leverage and associated discounts, indicating that investors pay a relative premium for leverage."

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

2/ "Each year, we segment funds into two categories: pure equity and mixed-allocation funds. These categories are primarily based on Bloomberg classifications. We manually classify the funds that Bloomberg does not cover. The vast majority of our funds are purely equity-focused."

3/ "To prevent survivorship bias, we do not require funds to have the data from Bloomberg.

"When we use a binary indicator for whether a fund is levered, we set it to zero for funds not covered by Bloomberg. This is conservative (biasing in the direction of finding no result)."

Read 23 tweets

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