We need to do a much better job at communicating that all good climate futures now involve an absolute fuck-ton of new buildings and major infrastructure investments.

A giant building boom is what successful climate action looks like on the ground.
I mean, I'm a lifetime fan of electrification and demand reduction, and the one billion machines frame is great.

But decarbonizing energy is only one part of the job we face; ruggedizing ourselves will be a bigger and just as pressing task as cutting CO2.
saulgriffith.medium.com/one-billion-ma…
Then in the U.S., there's rebuilding all the degraded systems around us, paying off technical debt and deferred maintenance, building out of the current housing shortage, preparing to accommodate millions of new refugees and welcoming 10s of millions of internal climate migrants.
There will be a LOT of refugees, and if we broaden that number to include climate migrants—those who factor climate & ecological decline into a complex set of decisions about where and when to move—we could be talking about more than a billion people.

insideclimatenews.org/news/02112021/…

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More from @AlexSteffen

3 Nov
I'm sorry to be impolitic, but, if — in 2021, as the biosphere unravels before our eyes — your call to action is for more dialogue between those seeking to prevent planetary catastrophe and those profiting from it, then YOU are part of the problem that needs to be fixed.
There is no middle ground between predatory delay and action at the pace demanded by the crisis we face.

There's fast enough, and too slow. That's all.

The idea that we should seek out that middle ground is itself a tactic of predatory delay.
More on predatory delay in this newsletter...

alexsteffen.substack.com/p/the-last-hur…
Read 4 tweets
1 Nov
60% of IPCC authors think we're headed for 3ºC warming.

My sense:

1.5º is barely even within possibility, and certainly extremely likely.

2º is possible, requires massive shifts in climate politics, business and finance... and luck.

2.5º is doable with rapid, spiky action.
Informed intuition at work.

Nobody can predict the real outcome, given the sheer complexity of the human systems being modeled and the magnitude of discontinuity involved.

Which is why we need to fight as if the best outcome were still possible.

It might be.
Also, we should see how much progress has been made.

Even if we still face catastrophic perils, I believe we no longer face an extinction-level event, or even an apocalyptic civilization collapse.

Our future is now *transapocalyptic*, which, while grim, is actually a huge win.
Read 6 tweets
31 Oct
Climate action is a steepening curve.
So, too, is literally every other aspect of the planetary crisis.

Speed is everything.
Also, it's not just that actions become, of necessity, faster and more disruptive.

It's also that increasingly massive resources must be devoted to ruggedizing in the face of impacts, and ever-greater discontinuities shake society as people and institutions scramble to keep up.
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
Thinking tonight of the many 1000s of awesome, dedicated, tough (and often funny!) advocates for the human future on planet Earth I have met over 30 years of this work.

Bunch of fricking misfit geeks, wonks and rads —who may have actually staved off human extinction.

Respect. Image
Humanity owes a vast, unpayable debt to the good, kind people who transformed themselves thru love & commitment from unremarkable citizens, scientists, back-to-the-landers, artists, engineers, parents & professors into the thin edge of the wedge that may turned us from disaster.
Even today, we fail to understand what these folks did for us all, and our kids, and their kids, and generations stretching out into the vastness of time.

Heroes with day jobs and kids to care for.
Read 7 tweets
29 Oct
Noting that the structure of a human system inclines it with great probability to a certain set of outcomes is not prediction, but observation. Image
The systems we've created for climate politics, policy and diplomacy incline towards seriously insufficient near-term outcomes, and thus — because of the inevitability of action in response to ecological imperatives — to radically disruptive medium-term results.
Massive actions in response to the planetary crisis are not a matter of whether, but when.

When, however, changes dramatically what the nature of the actions taken ends up being.
Read 4 tweets
26 Oct
On a planet where people are just growing used to wild change — endless droughts, massive storms, smoke-orange skies, random flash floods, heat domes and so on — the biggest shifting baseline seems to be our expectations of climate diplomacy.
The future planet we appear to be ready to agree to live on — if we get what is being framed as a *successful* COP — was understood to be an appallingly bad outcome just 30 years ago... a tragedy for future generations, to be avoided at all costs.
I am all about getting the wins we can, and revving up for the Snap Forward. Winning is a spectrum, here, and there are multiple paths to victory.

Our climate debate, however, wanders amidst the absurd and slightly surreal these days.
Read 6 tweets

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