1/7 Thread: $TRUP 3Q'21 Update

Even though I am not a pet owner, last month's deep dive on Trupanion introduced me to the fascinating business of pet insurance. My notes from today's earnings call.
2/7 Total revenue +40% YoY
Subscription business +28%; other business +78%

Total enrolled pet +22% YoY; avg monthly retention 98.72% or 78 months (vs 76 months last yr); ARPU +4.5%

Adj operating margin 14.6%, very close to long-term target of 15%
3/7 "In Trutopia, members adding pets or referring friends offsets pets churning off. In the quarter, we narrowed the gap to Trutopia to a mere 0.28%."
4/7 "By the end of 2025, we aim to grow our addressable market by 40%. We intend on doing this by adding 10,000 international hospitals. This will increase our overall market from 25,000 in North
America to 35,000 globally."
5/7 Pricing seems to be pretty good. Cost of invoices went up by 4.9% whereas ARPU for full year is expected to increase by 5.3%

Is rising cost a concern? Darryl thinks vets should charge even more. In any case, it doesn't seem to be having much impact on retention.
6/7 Outlook: Full yr revenue guidance +39% YoY; subscription biz +28% YoY

As Darryl pointed out in the call, even IF the revenue is flat next yr, TRUP will be in line with 5-yr guidance of 25% CAGR growth which shows how impressive this year has been.
7/7 Paywalled deep dive on $TRUP: mbi-deepdives.com/trup/

I will cover $SQ and $IAC/ $ANGI this week.

All my twitter threads can be found here: mbi-deepdives.com/twitter-thread…

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More from @borrowed_ideas

5 Nov
1/ Thread: $SQ 3Q'21 Earnings Update

Cash App and seller ecosystem continue to grow at an impressive rate. My notes from this call.
2/ "mid-market sellers experienced strong growth in the third quarter of 2021, growing gross profit nearly twice as fast as the overall Seller business on a two-year CAGR basis. Mid market Seller GPV represented 37% of total Seller GPV, compared to 28% two years ago."
3/ "with more than three out of four Square Invoices getting paid within a day vs. the industry average of 25 days for small businesses."

A new software/subscription offering: SQ Invoices Plus.

New international market: France, second largest card markets in Europe
Read 12 tweets
31 Oct
1/8 I bought Oculus Quest 2 and wanted to share my first impression as user. Since I don't play much video games, this is going to be mostly non-gaming experience of Quest.
2/8 The first glimpse of my "home" at Oculus felt incredible. That "Oculus home" appears much more luxurious than my actual home.

Then I watched this. I'm the kind of guy who avoids roller coaster in theme parks at any cost. I felt sick watching this.
3/8 Before throwing my Quest 2 away, I decided to try more videos. I watched YouTube (non-VR) for a while. It felt nothing unspectacular. I mean it's large screen and all, so much better than watching on laptop/TV. But nothing too amazing!
Read 8 tweets
30 Oct
1/ @LibertyRPF is one of those people who makes fintwit such a worthwhile experience. I've learnt invaluable life lessons from him which I frankly doubt I could get elsewhere.

I’m glad through @InfiniteL88ps podcast others could have a glimpse of his wisdom. My notes.
2/ “people work and they trade their time for money, but it works both ways, so if you have enough money, you can buy back your own time.”
3/ "humans are very bad at predicting what's going to make them happy. As you often talk about, we're super nomadic, so we just look around, look at what everybody else is doing and go, Well, that must be the way," so we copy each other and we chase what everybody else is chasing
Read 19 tweets
29 Oct
1/ Thread: $AMZN 3Q'21 Earnings Update

This call was the poster child of all the current macro hot topics (supply chain, labor constraints, inflation etc.). AMZN, ex AWS posted loss after quite some time.

My notes from the call.
2/ First, here’s the breakdown of revenue by segment (both product and geography)
3/ While AMZN bears raise their eyebrows with "slowing" growth, 2-yr and 3-yr CAGR depicts better underlying health because of the unusual last year.

I don't quite see much of a slowdown on 2-yr basis. AWS growth remains "size unconstrained" and ads continue to marvel.
Read 14 tweets
28 Oct
1/6 Bezos invested for couple of decades in building the retail infrastructure without showing much profits. Along the way, AMZN stumbled upon on AWS.

Once AWS came to light, investors stopped pestering on shipping costs/retail margin. FB is doing the same but in reverse order
2/6 FB has built an incredibly scalable AND profitable global communication platform. The fat margins anchored us to a certain kind of business model.

Perhaps psychologically it's more difficult to have the order (high margin and then low margin/loss making biz unit) reversed.
3/6 Of course, nobody is sure what the eventual economics of the Metaverse is gonna look like. It could end up being just as highly profitable.

But it is almost certain that this is going to be loss making for years, potentially this whole decade.
Read 6 tweets
27 Oct
1/ Thread: $GOOG 3Q'21 Earnings Update

Google continues to post numbers that would probably break analysts' DCFs.

What really boggles my mind is YouTube, a ~$29 Bn run-rate biz, is growing at ~40% 2-yr CAGR whereas $NFLX, a comparable topline company growing at ~22% 2-yr CAGR.
2/ Unlike FB, GOOG's incremental operating margin remains >50%.

Cloud's operating margin remains similar to last quarter, but clearly easier to imagine today profitability reaching sooner than what I thought after looking at negative 35-45% margin last year.
3/ "We recently surpassed 50 million music and premium subscribers, including those in trial, and YouTube shots continues to see higher adoption rates. In the past year, the average number of daily first-time creators more than doubled"
Read 10 tweets

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