1/ @LibertyRPF is one of those people who makes fintwit such a worthwhile experience. I've learnt invaluable life lessons from him which I frankly doubt I could get elsewhere.

I’m glad through @InfiniteL88ps podcast others could have a glimpse of his wisdom. My notes.
2/ “people work and they trade their time for money, but it works both ways, so if you have enough money, you can buy back your own time.”
3/ "humans are very bad at predicting what's going to make them happy. As you often talk about, we're super nomadic, so we just look around, look at what everybody else is doing and go, Well, that must be the way," so we copy each other and we chase what everybody else is chasing
4/ “..instead of looking at what people are chasing, look at what people who are happy, what have they got? How did they get there? That's a much better way, like kind of the base rate way to do it.”
5/ In an age dominated by deluge of information, curation is going to be incredibly valuable. Your "taste" on your sources can and will make a difference since you cannot possibly follow everything by yourself.
6/ "I'm not trying to optimize for the best returns...I am trying to optimize for happiness"
7/ How many stocks do you own?

"There's the correct answer and then there's the answer behind the answer."
8/ "I would rather be emotional in the way that I like a business too much and I hold it for too long, than emotional in the direction where I sell too quickly and too easily as soon as there's some volatility."
9/ "Base rates are amazing. Base rates are one of the best tools that we have to think more clearly, make fewer mistakes."

But...there's a but.
10/ Before meeting him, I always imagined Liberty as “a former engineer who made so much money that he decided to retire early to just focus on investing”. Nope.

He is just a self-taught random Canadian guy.
11/ "You need moderators that are just active enough to keep the trolls away so that the community can flourish. On Twitter, it's self-organizing. There's no mods, so it would seem harder" but it's not.
12/ One of the strangest things is the "Liberty" identity is so ingrained in my head that I keep calling him that even though he did mention his actual full name to me. I don't even remember his last name now 😂

Our digital identity has already started taking over. Metaverse?
13/ Unless you are managing money professionally, I think individual investors need not beat them too much if they don't beat the market. If your savings rate is good even with the avg income in your country, your CAGR return is almost immaterial to your long-term happiness.
14/ "if the arguments are stronger, you should want to change your mind. If you don't change your mind, that's the defeat."

Also, great bit about how specialists cannot look where generalists can at times.
15/ "it's a lot easier to remove things that make you unhappy than to add things that make you happy. I feel like our society, for all its faults and its flaws, has been pretty good at removing a bunch of stuff that makes us suffer"
16/ "Cal Newport is a writer I quite like. He talks about how the jobs that everybody wants have certain shared characteristics, and so they're autonomy, creativity, and impact."
17/ I earnestly believe if we do a "real" II ranking 10-15 years from now, there will be at least 3 analysts who are just writing their own newsletters. One of them is going to be @scuttleblurb. He's basically already there, but we don't have "real" II ranking.
18/ Love the "Golden Rule+".

Link to the entire episode: infiniteloopspodcast.com/libertyrpf-the…
End/ If you want to tap into Liberty's wealth of wisdom three days a week, subscribe here: libertyrpf.com

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More from @borrowed_ideas

31 Oct
1/8 I bought Oculus Quest 2 and wanted to share my first impression as user. Since I don't play much video games, this is going to be mostly non-gaming experience of Quest.
2/8 The first glimpse of my "home" at Oculus felt incredible. That "Oculus home" appears much more luxurious than my actual home.

Then I watched this. I'm the kind of guy who avoids roller coaster in theme parks at any cost. I felt sick watching this.
3/8 Before throwing my Quest 2 away, I decided to try more videos. I watched YouTube (non-VR) for a while. It felt nothing unspectacular. I mean it's large screen and all, so much better than watching on laptop/TV. But nothing too amazing!
Read 8 tweets
29 Oct
1/ Thread: $AMZN 3Q'21 Earnings Update

This call was the poster child of all the current macro hot topics (supply chain, labor constraints, inflation etc.). AMZN, ex AWS posted loss after quite some time.

My notes from the call.
2/ First, here’s the breakdown of revenue by segment (both product and geography)
3/ While AMZN bears raise their eyebrows with "slowing" growth, 2-yr and 3-yr CAGR depicts better underlying health because of the unusual last year.

I don't quite see much of a slowdown on 2-yr basis. AWS growth remains "size unconstrained" and ads continue to marvel.
Read 14 tweets
28 Oct
1/6 Bezos invested for couple of decades in building the retail infrastructure without showing much profits. Along the way, AMZN stumbled upon on AWS.

Once AWS came to light, investors stopped pestering on shipping costs/retail margin. FB is doing the same but in reverse order
2/6 FB has built an incredibly scalable AND profitable global communication platform. The fat margins anchored us to a certain kind of business model.

Perhaps psychologically it's more difficult to have the order (high margin and then low margin/loss making biz unit) reversed.
3/6 Of course, nobody is sure what the eventual economics of the Metaverse is gonna look like. It could end up being just as highly profitable.

But it is almost certain that this is going to be loss making for years, potentially this whole decade.
Read 6 tweets
27 Oct
1/ Thread: $GOOG 3Q'21 Earnings Update

Google continues to post numbers that would probably break analysts' DCFs.

What really boggles my mind is YouTube, a ~$29 Bn run-rate biz, is growing at ~40% 2-yr CAGR whereas $NFLX, a comparable topline company growing at ~22% 2-yr CAGR.
2/ Unlike FB, GOOG's incremental operating margin remains >50%.

Cloud's operating margin remains similar to last quarter, but clearly easier to imagine today profitability reaching sooner than what I thought after looking at negative 35-45% margin last year.
3/ "We recently surpassed 50 million music and premium subscribers, including those in trial, and YouTube shots continues to see higher adoption rates. In the past year, the average number of daily first-time creators more than doubled"
Read 10 tweets
26 Oct
1/ Thread: $FB 3Q'22 Earnings Update

When Evan Spiegel was busy cajoling Apple during the disruptive iOS changes, Zuck understood the gravity and prepared FB quite well ahead of the changes.

But the battle seems to change every quarter. Now it's capital allocation.
2/ 3Q'21 topline grew 33.2% but since spending ramped up, incremental operating margin fell a lot.

As you will see in this thread, it may take quite some time before we see ~60-70% incremental operating margin from FB.
3/ DAU and MAU both +6% YoY

Revenue by geography YoY
North America +35%
Europe +31%
APAC +28%
RoW +50%

# of Ad impressions and price/impression in '21
Q1: +12%/ +30%
Q2: +6% / +47%
Q3: +9% / +22%
Read 18 tweets
20 Oct
1/9 I have noticed a counterintuitive benefit from sharing my portfolio publicly. This isn't call for you to share your portfolio publicly; I'm aware it is not feasible/rational for many out there.

I'm just explaining how I think it helps *me*.
2/9 Before talking about the benefit, let me briefly mention the potential negative.

Well, the negative is probably obvious. Sharing my portfolio publicly may create a commitment bias. It's hard to change your mind once you propagate all the bullish pov on stocks you own.
3/9 There is truth to that, especially since I say I intend to be long-term investor.

It would create a cognitive dissonance if I get in and out of stocks every few months and yet claim myself long-term oriented simultaneously. So I kinda have to remain invested unless...
Read 9 tweets

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