1/6 Bezos invested for couple of decades in building the retail infrastructure without showing much profits. Along the way, AMZN stumbled upon on AWS.

Once AWS came to light, investors stopped pestering on shipping costs/retail margin. FB is doing the same but in reverse order
2/6 FB has built an incredibly scalable AND profitable global communication platform. The fat margins anchored us to a certain kind of business model.

Perhaps psychologically it's more difficult to have the order (high margin and then low margin/loss making biz unit) reversed.
3/6 Of course, nobody is sure what the eventual economics of the Metaverse is gonna look like. It could end up being just as highly profitable.

But it is almost certain that this is going to be loss making for years, potentially this whole decade.
4/6 Metaverse will almost certainly be pervasive at some point and Zuck is almost certainly too early.

The question is whether he is 25 years early or 5 years early. Is he good enough to accelerate us into the future?
5/6 I don't know the answer.

But since I consider investing as *my* lens to understand the world without being allergic to making money, $FB was always one of the most important companies in my portfolio.
6/6 I'm not quite aware of the world Zuck is trying to create. I look forward to getting more acquainted to his vision as "Meta" evolves going forward.

Given the core biz is far from richly valued, I can afford to wait to understand that world without bleeding my portfolio.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

30 Oct
1/ @LibertyRPF is one of those people who makes fintwit such a worthwhile experience. I've learnt invaluable life lessons from him which I frankly doubt I could get elsewhere.

I’m glad through @InfiniteL88ps podcast others could have a glimpse of his wisdom. My notes.
2/ “people work and they trade their time for money, but it works both ways, so if you have enough money, you can buy back your own time.”
3/ "humans are very bad at predicting what's going to make them happy. As you often talk about, we're super nomadic, so we just look around, look at what everybody else is doing and go, Well, that must be the way," so we copy each other and we chase what everybody else is chasing
Read 19 tweets
29 Oct
1/ Thread: $AMZN 3Q'21 Earnings Update

This call was the poster child of all the current macro hot topics (supply chain, labor constraints, inflation etc.). AMZN, ex AWS posted loss after quite some time.

My notes from the call.
2/ First, here’s the breakdown of revenue by segment (both product and geography)
3/ While AMZN bears raise their eyebrows with "slowing" growth, 2-yr and 3-yr CAGR depicts better underlying health because of the unusual last year.

I don't quite see much of a slowdown on 2-yr basis. AWS growth remains "size unconstrained" and ads continue to marvel.
Read 14 tweets
27 Oct
1/ Thread: $GOOG 3Q'21 Earnings Update

Google continues to post numbers that would probably break analysts' DCFs.

What really boggles my mind is YouTube, a ~$29 Bn run-rate biz, is growing at ~40% 2-yr CAGR whereas $NFLX, a comparable topline company growing at ~22% 2-yr CAGR.
2/ Unlike FB, GOOG's incremental operating margin remains >50%.

Cloud's operating margin remains similar to last quarter, but clearly easier to imagine today profitability reaching sooner than what I thought after looking at negative 35-45% margin last year.
3/ "We recently surpassed 50 million music and premium subscribers, including those in trial, and YouTube shots continues to see higher adoption rates. In the past year, the average number of daily first-time creators more than doubled"
Read 10 tweets
26 Oct
1/ Thread: $FB 3Q'22 Earnings Update

When Evan Spiegel was busy cajoling Apple during the disruptive iOS changes, Zuck understood the gravity and prepared FB quite well ahead of the changes.

But the battle seems to change every quarter. Now it's capital allocation.
2/ 3Q'21 topline grew 33.2% but since spending ramped up, incremental operating margin fell a lot.

As you will see in this thread, it may take quite some time before we see ~60-70% incremental operating margin from FB.
3/ DAU and MAU both +6% YoY

Revenue by geography YoY
North America +35%
Europe +31%
APAC +28%
RoW +50%

# of Ad impressions and price/impression in '21
Q1: +12%/ +30%
Q2: +6% / +47%
Q3: +9% / +22%
Read 18 tweets
20 Oct
1/9 I have noticed a counterintuitive benefit from sharing my portfolio publicly. This isn't call for you to share your portfolio publicly; I'm aware it is not feasible/rational for many out there.

I'm just explaining how I think it helps *me*.
2/9 Before talking about the benefit, let me briefly mention the potential negative.

Well, the negative is probably obvious. Sharing my portfolio publicly may create a commitment bias. It's hard to change your mind once you propagate all the bullish pov on stocks you own.
3/9 There is truth to that, especially since I say I intend to be long-term investor.

It would create a cognitive dissonance if I get in and out of stocks every few months and yet claim myself long-term oriented simultaneously. So I kinda have to remain invested unless...
Read 9 tweets
14 Oct
1/8 Thread: Installation vs Deployment era investors

Ben Thompson recently wrote about Carlota Perez's theory related to "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital".

Some thoughts on this topic.
2/8 As I kept reading and thinking on this, it occurred to me that the defining debate in investing for the next couple of decades may not be "value" vs "growth" investing rather "installation" vs "deployment" investing.
3/8 Perez identifies five distinct era for tech revolutions:

The industrial revolution
Age of Steam and Railways
Age of Steel, electricity, and heavy engineering
Age of Oil, automobiles, and mass production
Age of information and telecommunications
Read 8 tweets

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