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4 Nov, 25 tweets, 8 min read
1) As the 2021 @MLB season comes to a close, some reflections from 21 years as a fan of the @SFGiants.

I suck at baseball.
3) First of all, and unrelatedly -- _huge_ props to @tackettzane, Lou, and the MLB team for the partnership over the past year. We're extremely greatful for being able to work together!
4) Anyway, I grew up rooting for the early 2000's Giants, which means that I got to witness the greatest individual seasons in the history of the game.

5) It's hard to explain @BarryBonds's dominance to people who grew up watching 2010's baseball. I guess the best I could come up with is: imagine combining Stanton's power with Votto's eye and bat control.
6) Here's my favorite baseball statistic.

Want to know the single season leader in intentional walks?

It's Willie McCovey, with 45:
7) Just kidding. That's the single season leader who _isn't_ Barry Bonds.

Here's the actual single season IBB leaderboard:
8) Anyway, Bonds defined the 2000's Giants.

But the golden years of the team game later, in the 2010's.

There was something so likeable about them: a quirky bunch who managed to win 3 world series in the decade without having a single bona fide superstar.
9) Trivia question: who was the last Giant to hit 30 home runs in a season?

It was this guy, back in 2004.

Since then, the Giants have won 3 world series.
10) Three was @hunterpence and his scooter; The Freak throwing baseballs the way no one should be able to; the homegrown infield of @BusterPosey, Crawford, Belt, and Sandoval; and MadBum taking the entire team on his back in the 2014 playoffs.
11) My favorite pitch from the era was the one that ended the 2012 season: @SergioRomo54 striking @MiguelCabrera out looking on an 89 MPH "fastball" down the middle.

His frisbee slider was so unhittable that year that a meatball could complement it.

12) Anyway I guess I was prompted to write this post today because the rumor is that Posey -- the thread of continuity for the Giants' decade -- is going to announce his retirement, firmly ending the era.
13) But the truth is that I'm more optimistic about the 2020's Giants than I was about the 2010's.

It's hard to argue that they didn't get lucky to achieve what they have.

But even in the past few years, we've seen the promise of what the Giants can become under Farhan Zaidi.
14) They're a huge budget team which is being run, for the first time in a while, with a strong analytical bent.

It's amazing to think back on how revolutionary Moneyball seemed when Michael Lewis wrote it.

Today, it's hard to miss.
15) The teams most associated with analytics in baseball have massively outperformed their budgets: collectively the @Athletics, @astros, @RaysBaseball, and @Dodgers -- and the @RedSox and @Cubs under Epstein -- have been represented in each of the last 6 world series.
16) And the @SFGiants are starting to show the signs of an organization that has discovered numbers.

--Their player development weirdly outperforms (think of their pitching staff this year!)
--You've never heard of any of their outfielders, but they had the 3rd best in baseball
17) (The Giants had 6 different players produce 1+ WAR in the outfield last year! Their LF platoon of Ruf, Slater, and Wade outperformed nearly every team.)
18) I used to want to become a GM for a baseball team.

There are, I think, a set of things you could implement that would be worth more to the team than any single player in the league.
19) But as I look on it now, I worry that being a baseball GM is getting too commoditized.

I'm sure that's a gross oversimplification. But, slowly, team after team has realized the gains from common sense changes, and the competitive advantage gets smaller.
20) I think there's one last frontier for in-game baseball strategy that could be worth a huge amount, although the league might rulemake away much of its advantage this offseason.

It's based on the following claims:

a) Pitchers get tired the more they pitch in a day
b) (a) isn't just a reflection of yearly usage: pitchers are in fact decently refreshed after taking a day off
c) pitchers get worse the 2nd/3rd/etc. time they face a batter, because the batter gets used to their stuff

d) pitchers suck at hitting (no offence Greinke/Bumgarner!)
e) there are substantial gains to getting platooon advantage if you can be nimble with your pitchers

We've started to see some of these play out with "openers". But what's the final form?
23) Well, (a) and (b) imply that you only want a pitcher to throw a few innings in a game.

(c) implies that you only want a pitcher to throw a few innings.

(d) implies that you want to pinch hit for your pitchers.... every few innings.

(e) implies that you want to...
24) They actually all imply the same thing: especially in the NL, I think pitchers should almost *never* go through the order more than once.

You should pinch hit for them *every time* they bat.

Wins from pinch hitting: 4.6 (based off of wOBA)
Wins from pitcher fatigue/times through order: 3
Platoon wins: idk, another 1-2?

Overall I think this is worth ~5-10 wins for the average NL team (at least as long as there's no DH).

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More from @SBF_FTX

4 Nov
1) On Hubris
2) "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desert. . . . Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk a shattered visage lies...

And on the pedestal, these words appear:
My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Nothing beside remains."
3) Each year, the world stands witness to a giant company, felled by its own arrogance.

And each year the world averts its eyes as many more enterprises dream too small and believe too little.
Read 20 tweets
23 Oct
1) Filing taxes isn't fun. As it turns out, for many people, it's also a bit of an odd exercise.…
2) See, the government actually already has a lot of the relevant information.

But rather than make that available to the taxpayer, it sends a form asking you to enter your income, investments, etc.

Asking you to tell the IRS what it already knows.
3) The consequences of messing it up can be years of lawsuits and frustration.

Filing taxes is basically the government issuing you a test, judging how well you do, as it is actually collecting new information.
Read 8 tweets
16 Oct
1) Don't let the drive for a narrative overcome your priors; aka the slow, sad decay of fivethirtyeight.…
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It is centered around the observation that, this season, Lamar Jackson has been better on early downs while Justin Herbert has been better on late downs.

Why is this????
3) Sample sizes, mostly.

The sample sizes so far are pretty small -- around 60 3rd down attempts per team. The difference between the Ravens and Chargers completion % is about 14% (35% vs 49%); the standard deviation due to raw luck here is ~40%/sqrt(60)*sqrt(2) ~ 7%
Read 13 tweets
15 Oct
1) another lazy, incoherent take on COVID:…
2) as with many, this one doesn’t bother attempting a cost benefit analysis.

If it did, it would maybe notice that the claimed annual damages from the flu are around $50b.

How about it’s proposed countermeasures?
3) well, US GDP is $20T, so we have 0.2% to play with—0.4% if you double it to include endemic COVID.

Maybe his proposed interventions would halve the risk—back to 0.2%.

That’s the equivalent of missing 1 day per year of work.
Read 8 tweets
13 Oct
1) A while ago I wrote a thread on VCs:

I've now been through a LOT more raising and investing. Some updated thoughts on the process!
3) At its heart, I've been trying to understand the following question:

Let's say a company had $100m of revenue and $90m of expenses in the past year.

It goes out to raise $50m. What valuation does the raise happen at?
Read 26 tweets
7 Oct
1) Ok come on TIME, this article is pretty pathetic.

How did no editors catch that it was logically impossible?…
2) so, if all relationships were monogamous and heterosexual, and there were as many women in the world as men, then the effect of “economic pressures” on the ratio of single men to single women…
3) …would be null, because there would by definition be exactly the same number of each. There would be some number of couples, and that would be exactly the number of men and of women in a relationship.
Read 7 tweets

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