Thread by @dgurdasani1

REACT-1 results from today:
-highest SARS-CoV-2 prevalence since the study started in May 2020
-very high prevalence in primary & secondary school kids
-higher infection in households with children
-⬆️ in AY.4.2 to 11% end Oct
- 4x increase in SW - due to Immensa scandal

REACT-1 shows the overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than in any previous round of REACT-1 since May 2020. It estimates that ~1.2 million people were infected on any day towards the end of Oct. Swab positivity declines towards the end of Oct coinciding with half-term.

The study finds the highest prevalence of infection ~5.7% among primary and secondary school age children, with increased risk for those living with children. They say this is driving the rise of infection in the 65+ age group where prevalence has *doubled* between Sept and Oct.

There is a 4x increase in positivity in the South-West that is very likely linked to the Immensa scandal. This figure says everything:

It's clear
1. that schools are driving transmission substantially
2. This is driving up infections in more vulnerable groups ultimately translating to more hospitalisations and deaths
Much of this is down to the lack of mitigations & vaccination in children

We see declines in infection in children, but also reflected in other age groups around half-term. Shows a clear picture of impact of school holidays on transmission among children & in the community. Unfortunately these are likely to be short-lived as school re-open.

REACT-1 concludes that there is risk to vulnerable children & household contacts. It says that accelerated vaccination of children is likely to make a difference. So far children's vaccination has been very slow, and delaying offering this appears to have had huge -ve impact.

The harm done by multiple govt policies, and lack of oversight of contract provision is very clear in this study. Despite vaccines, it's shameful that we have the highest infection rates we've ever had.

A lot down of this is down to very high rates of infection in children (due to lack of mitigations & vaccination) spilling over into other age groups, which has also resulted in higher hospitalisation & death rates than this time last year (when we didn't have vaccines!)

The huge surge in the SW appears to be down to the Immensa scandal, which the govt is still denying had any impact. This almost certainly led to loss of life, as have our exceptional policies of almost no mitigations and huge delays in vaccination in schools.

Who is accountable? JCVI's minimisation of COVID-19 in children, with clear repeated narratives of infection being 'advantageous' for children and important for the UK COVID-19 pandemic has almost certainly been fatal for many.

There is so much govt could be doing to avoid >1,100 deaths per week and unsustainable pressure on the NHS- simple measures that don't disrupt people's lives, but ensure they can get healthcare, children can go into schools protected without disruption.

But will it?

Also worth adding about AY.4.2 - we don't know much about it but the consistent growth (even if not very fast) is worrying. The last PHE report showed a significantly higher. household secondary attack rate compared to delta (more likely to transmit to contacts).

At this point, anything outcompeting delta, and showing a higher proportion of contacts infected worries me, given how transmissible and able to escape delta is.