1) The House COULD vote on the social so ending and infrastructure bills today…but then again, we’ve heard that before
2) The Rules Committee met until nearly 12:30 this morning and did not approve a “rule” to put the social spending bill on the floor. If the House lacks a “rule,” to establish the parameters of debate, it can’t bring up the bill.
3) So, this could bleed into Friday or be a very late night tonight.
That said, all the House needs to do is vote on the infrastructure bill to line up with the Senate. The House debated that bill weeks ago. The Senate approved the infrastructure package in early August.
4) Democrats can still only lose three votes on their side and pass those bills without Republican help. However, we do expect 9-15 GOPers to vote aye on infrastructure.
That said, the breakdowns in the House shift a bit today.
5) The House will swear-in Reps.-elect Shontel Brown (D-OH) and Mike Carey (R-OH). They won special elections Tuesday to succeed former Rep. Marcia Fudge (D-OH) who is now HUD Secretary and former Rep. Steve Stivers (R-OH) who resigned.
6) The new breakdown in the House will be 434 members. 221 Democrats and 213 Republicans. The lone vacancy is the seat of late Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL) who died.
7) The margin is still three for Democrats and not four because a 217-217 vote produces a tie. By rule, a tie vote fails in the House.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
A) We have officially reached the “Stockholm Syndrome” level of where House Democrats stand with negotiations.
The House met at at 8 am et today with the expectation that Democrats could advance both the infrastructure bill and the social spending package.
B) That quickly hit a roadblock. Now House Democrats are at least trying to secure a partial win by passing the infrastructure bill later tonight.
Enter, the Stockholm Syndrome.
C) This is a time honored tradition by leaders of both sides as they try to get the votes on a big issue. As a result, Congressional leaders keep members at the Capitol late at night or over the weekend.
1) We’ve heard for weeks about Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).
How about “The Others.”
It’s the “others” who are causing a problem for House Democrats today as they try to advance the social spending bill.
2) Democrats need most if not all of these “others” if they’re going to pass their bill and only have a three vote turning radius.
3) Some of those “others” are Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL), leader of the Blue Dogs, Reps. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ), Kurt Schrader (D-OR), Scott Peters (D-CA), Kathleen Rice (D-NY), Ed Case (D-HI), Ron Kind (D-WI), Carolyn Bordeaux (D-GA) and others.
1) McCarthy on Fox: We're going to see a very long day, and my fear is it's back to what Speaker Pelosi said in the past. You have to pass the bill to know what's in it.
2) McCarthy: What's really scary to me is history. In 2009, Republicans won the governorship of Virginia and New Jersey. And four days later, Nancy Pelosi walked the Democrats off the cliff and passed Obamacare. She's trying to do the exact same thing today
3) McCarthy on Pelosi: I think it's very close. I think she's within a couple votes away. We're here hearing last night she's pushing it forward today. They they've done this every week for the last two months, so we'll see.
1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To Today’s Possible Votes in the House
The House of Representatives meets at 8 am et today as Democrats rush to finish their social spending package.
The aim is for the House to vote on both the social spending bill and infrastructure measures today.
2) Bill text is done, altered late last night. That technically violates the House’s “72 hour rule” for members to read legislation before a vote. There is also no final CBO “score” evaluating the costs of the legislation. This was a sticking point for moderate Democrats.
3) Timing on all of this is impossible to predict. But here are the mechanics:
The House must first consider the “rule.” That establishes the parameters of debate for the social spending package. Think of this as a “pre-debate.” But the House is not actually on the bill itself.
A) From colleague Kelly Murphy. Blue Dog Chair Murphy on potential quick vote on social spending bill: When it comes to the BBBA, we need to have some time to be able to review it, the CBO/JCT tables, to understand how much spent and how much revenue is in the package,
B) Murphy: There needs to be some level of understanding as to whether or not this bill as written can survive the Senate procedural process, because after all, we're using the reconciliation process so that we can get these this proposal signed into law.
C) Murphy: The infrastructure bill is ready to go. It has been written. It has a CBO score. It was passed in a bipartisan way out of the Senate and it is ready for passage.