A) A senior Democratic leadership aide to Fox on where both the infrastructure & social spending bill stands: “It’s a sh*tshow.”

Fox is told is is increasingly possible the House doesn’t do either bill for several days.
B) “What’s the rush?” said one senior Democrat to Fox. “The rush should have been before Tuesday. It’s pretty confusing.”

Another senior Democrat told Fox “it would take a miracle” to pass the bill in the next two days.
C) But House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) says “he’s hopeful for a miracle then.”

Simply put: they don’t have the votes. Yet.
D) You cannot change the laws of Congressional physics. Newtonian laws of motion and the parliamentary version of Planck Constant apply on Capitol Hill. If you don't have the votes, you can't pass bills.
E) Moderate Democrats are insisting on a final score from the CBO and time to review the bill.

“There seem to be three different plans in play,” said Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-OH) when asked about SALT.
F) We are hearing chatter that to get a victory, Democrats could approve the “rule” to get the social spending bill on the floor. But not debate the bill. As part of that “rule” the House could “deem” infrastructure as “passed.”
G) But Democrats would like to actually put their name on the board as having voted for that bill.

Hoyer said that parliamentary option “was neither on nor off the table.”

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More from @ChadPergram

6 Nov
A) We have officially reached the “Stockholm Syndrome” level of where House Democrats stand with negotiations.

The House met at at 8 am et today with the expectation that Democrats could advance both the infrastructure bill and the social spending package.
B) That quickly hit a roadblock. Now House Democrats are at least trying to secure a partial win by passing the infrastructure bill later tonight.

Enter, the Stockholm Syndrome.
C) This is a time honored tradition by leaders of both sides as they try to get the votes on a big issue. As a result, Congressional leaders keep members at the Capitol late at night or over the weekend.
Read 6 tweets
5 Nov
1) We’ve heard for weeks about Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).

How about “The Others.”

It’s the “others” who are causing a problem for House Democrats today as they try to advance the social spending bill.
2) Democrats need most if not all of these “others” if they’re going to pass their bill and only have a three vote turning radius.
3) Some of those “others” are Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D-FL), leader of the Blue Dogs, Reps. Tom O’Halleran (D-AZ), Kurt Schrader (D-OR), Scott Peters (D-CA), Kathleen Rice (D-NY), Ed Case (D-HI), Ron Kind (D-WI), Carolyn Bordeaux (D-GA) and others.
Read 5 tweets
5 Nov
1) McCarthy on Fox: We're going to see a very long day, and my fear is it's back to what Speaker Pelosi said in the past. You have to pass the bill to know what's in it.
2) McCarthy: What's really scary to me is history. In 2009, Republicans won the governorship of Virginia and New Jersey. And four days later, Nancy Pelosi walked the Democrats off the cliff and passed Obamacare. She's trying to do the exact same thing today
3) McCarthy on Pelosi: I think it's very close. I think she's within a couple votes away. We're here hearing last night she's pushing it forward today. They they've done this every week for the last two months, so we'll see.
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To Today’s Possible Votes in the House

The House of Representatives meets at 8 am et today as Democrats rush to finish their social spending package.

The aim is for the House to vote on both the social spending bill and infrastructure measures today.
2) Bill text is done, altered late last night. That technically violates the House’s “72 hour rule” for members to read legislation before a vote. There is also no final CBO “score” evaluating the costs of the legislation. This was a sticking point for moderate Democrats.
3) Timing on all of this is impossible to predict. But here are the mechanics:

The House must first consider the “rule.” That establishes the parameters of debate for the social spending package. Think of this as a “pre-debate.” But the House is not actually on the bill itself.
Read 18 tweets
4 Nov
1) The House COULD vote on the social so ending and infrastructure bills today…but then again, we’ve heard that before
2) The Rules Committee met until nearly 12:30 this morning and did not approve a “rule” to put the social spending bill on the floor. If the House lacks a “rule,” to establish the parameters of debate, it can’t bring up the bill.
3) So, this could bleed into Friday or be a very late night tonight. 

That said, all the House needs to do is vote on the infrastructure bill to line up with the Senate. The House debated that bill weeks ago. The Senate approved the infrastructure package in early August.
Read 7 tweets
3 Nov
A) From colleague Kelly Murphy. Blue Dog Chair Murphy on potential quick vote on social spending bill: When it comes to the BBBA, we need to have some time to be able to review it, the CBO/JCT tables, to understand how much spent and how much revenue is in the package,
B) Murphy: There needs to be some level of understanding as to whether or not this bill as written can survive the Senate procedural process, because after all, we're using the reconciliation process so that we can get these this proposal signed into law.
C) Murphy: The infrastructure bill is ready to go. It has been written. It has a CBO score. It was passed in a bipartisan way out of the Senate and it is ready for passage.
Read 4 tweets

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