1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To Today’s Possible Votes in the House
The House of Representatives meets at 8 am et today as Democrats rush to finish their social spending package.
The aim is for the House to vote on both the social spending bill and infrastructure measures today.
The House of Representatives meets at 8 am et today as Democrats rush to finish their social spending package.
The aim is for the House to vote on both the social spending bill and infrastructure measures today.
2) Bill text is done, altered late last night. That technically violates the House’s “72 hour rule” for members to read legislation before a vote. There is also no final CBO “score” evaluating the costs of the legislation. This was a sticking point for moderate Democrats.
3) Timing on all of this is impossible to predict. But here are the mechanics:
The House must first consider the “rule.” That establishes the parameters of debate for the social spending package. Think of this as a “pre-debate.” But the House is not actually on the bill itself.
The House must first consider the “rule.” That establishes the parameters of debate for the social spending package. Think of this as a “pre-debate.” But the House is not actually on the bill itself.
4) The House MUST debate and vote on the rule before actually bringing up the underlying bill.
No rule, no bill.
If the House approves the bill, expect the House to then actually debate the legislation itself.
No rule, no bill.
If the House approves the bill, expect the House to then actually debate the legislation itself.
5) The Rules Committee has dedicated two hours to debate on the social spending plan. But we anticipate this to run a little longer once we get through “stoppage time.”
After debate, the House can vote on the bill.
After debate, the House can vote on the bill.
6) Somewhere in the vote sequences would be a final vote on the infrastructure measure. Keep in mind that the House actually debated the infrastructure plan weeks ago. All that’s left is for the House to vote on infrastructure.
7) We expect anywhere from 9-15 Republicans to vote yea on infrastructure.
At that point, the House will have synched with the Senate on infrastructure. The Senate approved the infrastructure plan in early August. That bill would then go to the President for signature.
At that point, the House will have synched with the Senate on infrastructure. The Senate approved the infrastructure plan in early August. That bill would then go to the President for signature.
8) The House probably won’t call the votes unless House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is confident both can pass. Pelosi’s calling card is passing big bills by narrow margins (e.g. - Obamacare). She won’t call the vote unless she has the votes to pass the bills.
9) This comes down to the math. The current House breakdown is 221 Democrats to 213 Republicans. That means Democrats can only lose three votes and still pass the bill.
10) By rule, a tie vote fails in the House.
Today’s prospective vote on the social spending bill is just the first step in a long process. The social spending bill must then go to the Senate.
Today’s prospective vote on the social spending bill is just the first step in a long process. The social spending bill must then go to the Senate.
11) Next week, the Senate would begin a “scrub” and “Byrd Bath” - named after late Senate Majority Leader Robert Byrd (D-WV) - to make sure the legislation complies with strict Senate budget rules. The House does not have to comply with these strictures.
12) That’s why a lot of the House’s product is aspirational.
The House version of the bill is DOA in the Senate. Expect major changes. Family leave provisions could fall. The Senate is still angling to add immigration language to the bill.
The House version of the bill is DOA in the Senate. Expect major changes. Family leave provisions could fall. The Senate is still angling to add immigration language to the bill.
13) The Senate is expected to consider the House bill the week of November 15. If the Senate approves its version, the House and Senate are out of alignment.
Remember that the Senate is considering this bill under the special process known as budget reconciliation.
Remember that the Senate is considering this bill under the special process known as budget reconciliation.
14) That means the bill is exempt from filibusters and only needs a majority pass.
We would expect Vice President Harris to cast the deciding ballot. on a party line vote.
This is where we get into parliamentary Ping Pong
We would expect Vice President Harris to cast the deciding ballot. on a party line vote.
This is where we get into parliamentary Ping Pong
15) The Senate must then bounce its version of the bill back to the House to line up.
It is generally thought that the House will have to swallow whatever the Senate comes up with. This is why some of the provisions in the House bill may prove to be “aspirational”
It is generally thought that the House will have to swallow whatever the Senate comes up with. This is why some of the provisions in the House bill may prove to be “aspirational”
16) Watch to see if there is a donnybrook in the House later if Democrats can’t accept changes dictated by the Senate Parliamentarian - and directed by Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ).
17) Also, the timing on this is interesting. Late November or early December for the next move. That could align with the need for lawmakers to pass a government funding bill and raise the debt ceiling by December 3.
18) This is why it is increasingly possible lawmakers stuff all of this into a mega bill later this year - and pass it all in one fell swoop.
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