Thread by @john_lichfield

Non-fish people look away. Here is my reply to a dishonest kettle of fish dumped on Parliament yesterday by the British government which purportedly “clarified” numbers at the heart of the UK-French dispute about fishing licences. 1/11

questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…

Lord Frost, @DavidGHFrost, tweeted that for “full transparency” the government was “setting out full and authoritative data” on which licences had been issued and which ones refused. The presentation was as transparent as the mud at the bottom of the English Channel. 2/11

First, that old sea serpent – the claim that UKG has issued 98% of licences requested by EU governments (see below). This is achieved by leaving out all 286 French requests for licences in Jersey/Guernsey waters (ie not technically in “UK” waters but at the heart of the row) 3/11

The stats are also massaged by omitting 37 Fr “replacement boats” in Eng waters (ie licences for "old" skippers but new boats). They appear in a note at the end. The UKG, we learn, is ready to look at such applications – the key to a deal when Frost goes to Paris today. 4/11

If you do the maths again, using only stats in the UKG’s own report, you get 2,154 applications for UK/Jersey/Guernsey and 1,906 licences issued (excluding temporary ones). This is 88.4% not 98%. All the 248 refused licences are French – other than 2 or 3 Belgian ones. 5/11

The UKG report, presented to Parliament as “authoritative”, muddles (I presume deliberately) the difference between 2 kinds of licence. Under the Brexit treaty agreed last Dec, the UK has no authority to refuse permits for EU boats fishing more than 12 miles from our shores. 6/11

In other words the great bulk of the 98% of licences claimed by UK (actually 88%) was automatic. Their delivery – including to over 700 Fr boats - does not prove any good will/good faith on part of UKG. Within 6-12 miles of Engl/Channel Islands the situation is different. 7/11

In the 6-12 mile zone boats “qualify” if they have fished there in recent years. The treaty doesn't say what proofs are needed - hence the dispute. Fr says the UK demands more proof than many small boats can provide. The UKG says some of them have offered no proof at all 8/11

If you re-crunch the numbers for 6-12 miles alone, using ONLY the UKG’s own figures, this is what happens.
French applications for English waters: 175. Approved 104, refused 71 (including the replacement boats under now being considered). This is an approval rate of 59%. 9/11

If you take the Jersey numbers (Guernsey is separate and more cooperative with Fr) you get the following...
Fr requests in Jersey waters 228 (including 11 replacement boats). Licences given 113; temporary licences 49; refused 66. This is a permanent approval rate of 49.5% 10/11

Conclusion: The negotiations today turn on 137 refused licences out of 403 – 186 if the temporary Jersey ones are included.
The UKG’s “good faith” in the dispute would be more evident if it showed more good faith in presenting the figures.
11/11